I have no count

What appeared to be a very nice 5 waves down for wave 1 was violated this morning, and I have no idea how to count this wave. As I said, we had to brake the 880 level before the bears could claim control.

The Ichimoku was confirming a Bear move in the charts under M30. That has tuned too.

Pivot Points:
I can't see R3 and R2 on my charts right now.
R3 =
R2 =
R1 = 924.193
PP = 912.777
S1 = 895.973
S2 = 884.557
S3 = 867.753



I'm at a loss right now. All I can do at this point is watch.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Morning Update

It's still too early to claim victory for the Bears, but the market is right on track.

It appears Rich was correct, wave 3 was an Expanding Diagonal (ED) which allowed the wave1 wave 4 overlap.

I have to hand it to him for noticing the microscopic waves inside the ED. They were 3-3-3-3-3 rather the 5-3-5-3-5. Even on a one minute chart it was difficult to see. This very small attention to detail is why Rich makes money.

This morning we completed what appears to be wave 5, and have begun the descent toward our first target of 824 .
38% = 824 SP-500 - 96 points
50% = 794 SP-500 - 126 points
68% = 764 SP-500 - 156 points

Key to our objective will be breaking the bottom trend line that has stood since March 23d.

The Ichimoku also requires breaking below the Kumo, and that too lies in the area of 900 to 890.

Pivot Points are computer generated buy and sell programs. They play a large role in the turning points of the market.

Today's Pivot Points are set as follows:
R2 = 930.543
R1 = 925.037
PP = 914.773
S1 = 909.267
S2 = 899.003
S3 = 893.497


We bumped off the top resistance R2 immediately after the open this morning with a peak of 929.40
At this moment, while I'm writing this morning update we have been bouncing off the first support level S1. It may be ambitious, but I hope we can break the third support level today, and put this Bull market to rest. It would not be impossible, yesterday we blew though R3, and kept on going so it might happen for us Bears today.

So far the MACD and stochastic are looking very good for us.
I'm feeling comfortable with the technical indicators as the Tenkan/Kijun have crossed sharply in the M1,M5,and M10 charts.




Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

After thoughts

After giving Rich's count a bit more thought I can see this as a likely path for the market to take tomorrow. The expanding triangle makes the wave 1 wave 4 overlap OK. This wave finishes at the top of the channel and appears very likely to me.

I feel very confident that tomorrow will finally be the peak of wave A. I'm appreciative of both Pedram and Rich for their input.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

So Close!

With help from Pedram I believe I have a chart that is labeled correctly.

I should probably interject that Rich has no rally to 943 in his chart. But hey this is my blog and even though I highly respect Rich I have to say what I see. Bottom line, we all see the bears coming.

I believe the last push will complete a full 5 waves. I know I've said that before. But I'm hoping the drop is severe, pushing through the bottoms of the Kumos.

Basically a drop below 880 should do it for even the most sceptical. Here is an extreme close up of the last few minutes of the market. I'm talking about mico waves at this level. But Elliott has to be fully satisfied before the count is done.

Pedram , thank you for your help today! Good luck with your shorts.

Alt Count

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One more possible count.

There is simply no easy way to count this wave nor is there a simple way to count the preceding waves beginning in March. I really have no idea, but this looked like it could be a possible way to count this wave and wanted to put it out there in hopes that it might help someone else see something they had not thought of.

The major problem with finding a count that works is the wave 1 wave 4 overlap rule. For the last two months it has forced us to count a lot of double and triple zig zags. Not that it is not possible but it's so messy. Even though it looks like three sets of five waves that count has problems with over lap.

This chart has the numbers from my Unknown Extention chart. and I really don't know if that has any value but for what it's worth this is how I count the correction today. I included the Unknown Extension predicted path which would top out at well over our current level if it touches the bottom and top trend lines again.


The Ichimoku is still looking rather Bullish the with price above the Kumo. This is an M15 Chart and it is typical of the other periods.

Something I see that fits with the a bounce off the bottom trend line is that it would be in the area of 890 and that wound be the bottom of this M15 Kumo.

Any comments would be appreciated.




Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Unkwown Wave

I first need to post the correct chart for my invalid count. The line showing the overlap was in the wrong place.

This chart also shows the market at the open. The stops at 881were quickly taken out at the opening. I only have one pattern that fits this chart, and I really hate to use it because it's one of the strangest waves documented by Frost and Prechter.

The wave is called the Unkown Wave Extension. This is a link to Bulkowski's Elliott Wave rules, where he describes a wave with 4 wave extension waves added to a 5 wave count. Each of the waves being so similar that the exact count can not be determined.

Kind of a cop out to be sure, but it does have a specific ending of nine waves, and appearance which defines the end of the Unknown wave. Should this be the case the wave will look similar to the chart below.

I felt that I had to edit this post because my first drawing would have had an overlap. That's why I have depicted the current wave as trading in a small range until we hit the bottom of the channel again.

Also I've played around with Fibonacci ratios, and come up with 944 as a possible target for the top. The target for Wave B just keeps moving up each time I move the peak of Wave A

I wish I had placed less faith in Elliott and more in MACD, Stochastics and Ichimoku.














Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Rich Is right. My Bullish scenario is INVALID

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

So far it looks good BUT...

Sadly this is a possible count.
(See my comment below. This scenario may have a flaw.)

Below is the count I hope will happen,
but the Ichimoku charts are telling me we could make one more high.
If it turns back down on Mondays open it will be a very strong case for this count being correct.

This is the M10 Ichimoku SP-500 chart.
M10 and M5 are the most bearish charts under M60.
It's possible that the top of the M10 Kumo will hold.

OK I'm ready to pull my hair out!

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.