I’m finding it hard to break years of sloppy notation. I've always known what I mean, but showing it in a respectable Blog demands much more diligence. Two days ago I decided to set up an Elliott Wave Notation System I could use with my software. I think I have the hierarchy correctly labeled now, but if you see mistakes please point it out.

One thing I've noticed is that there are a lot of triangles going on. There are several ways to count the wave since March 2009, but most end up with a required rally to finish Primary B.

I'd like to recommend Daneric's Elliott Waves . He has really put a lot of thought into what is going on and has some interesting variations in his June 5 Update too. I especially appreciate his study of other indicators such as the the Daily Sentiment Indicator and PE Ratios.

Monday will be telling. If we break the bottom of the triangle developing in Minuette ii, I would move the target to 924 and label it Minute Wave iv. That would be a flat 3-3-5 beginning on June 3d. Other than that I don't have a bearish chart for Monday.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo M30 Chart below is looking weak, but not without hope of one final push to higher ground.






Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I've been experimenting with using trend lines to time the market reversals. I saw this and wanted to present it. It will be interesting to see if it has any merit. My back testing has shown that it can be useful.

It's 13:50 at the NYSE right now and the EUR/USD appears to be starting to rally from a bottom trendline and Fibonacci point. If it takes off it will be interesting to see how it affects the SPX. The EUR/USD broke the bottom of a longer term trend line this morning. It appears that save for a small rally right now the dollar may reverse and gain strength. This would have a bearish pull on the SPX as well.






Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Morning Update Friday

The preferred count was disqualified by an overlap. This is my second scenario.
We are trading precisely within the Pivot points.

There is a lot of divergence between the EUR/USD and the SPX right now. Over night that market got crazy with wild swings. It will be interesting to see how that works out.





Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Elliott Wave Notations

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

All the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charts M1 through the daily charts are bullish.
The idea presented earlier today, where we could begin Wave B is off the table after today's action.


One of the next two charts are most likely to become reality. Even though I had a target of 980 I'd say now that 956 is more likely because waves 1 and 3 have not been robust enough to take us there. This next chart is my preference, but the last chart is included as possible alternate. It's not as likely, because the internal wave structure is impulsive rather than corrective.

Friday was my Target Date for a reversal. I'll have to experiment with converging trend lines a while longer as a way to time find revesal dates, but a reversal appears very likely to happen tomorrow! Gann Timing also predicted June 6th as a reversal date. If any one knows of a blog where Gann Timing is used I'd appreciate it if you would let me know.

This next chart is an alternate count and not likely to happen

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

The top chart shows Wave A as complete and Wave B in progress. This of course would become a 5-3-5 Zig Zag, and would likely test the lower trend line shown in the chart before heading up again

The bottom chart is the same chart I posted earlier today. I found myself focusing on just one scenario, and thought I should keep an open mind and make a bull and bear post, So here they are together.

As I mentioned earlier this morning the EUR/USD is going to influence the SP500. That market appears to be heading back up to the upper trend line. This may be exactly what we need to move forward to the finally. Reaching the upper trend line in the EUR/USD would coincide with the SP500 peak as well.





Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

The Ability Not To Trade

It has been a test of patients but I feel our time to strike is very close. Brett Steenbarger of Trader Feed often writes interesting articles about the psychology of trading. His article about The Ability Not To Trade is timely, and offers good advice.






Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I've moved a few labels about, and like this chart much better. Sometimes I just need to sleep on it. The EUR/USD took a big hit just prior to the open. I'm hoping the correction is over in that market so that the SPX can get on with Wave C.

I'd prefer to see a more convincing end to such a large move, but there is still the chance that we saw the peak of Wave C at 948. We may know by the end of the day .


Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Just when it looked like the count was clear we get hit with what looks like a five count down.

Filipe Miguel of Elliott Market Waves believes we completed Wave A at 949.38. This scenario has us going down in Wave B. This looks like a very reasonable scenario since we have apparently just come down in five waves. Of course it could be that it's wave A of a zigzag.

Basically if we are going to peak at the 980 area to finish we need five waves up. If 912.78 is overlaped before that happens, then it looks like Filipe is correct.
Pedram has a good last hope chart for a scenario which would include one more push upward.

This is good news because we no longer have to wait till 876 for comformation or a major Bear move.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

The M10 Kumo did not hold but it looks like the bottom of the M15 will. If I'm right we will head up toward the 980 target from here.

This next chart shows the larger count for the entire wave which I'm thinking is Primary B rather than Major A. In retrospect this wave was justifiably difficult to see. Major Waves A and B were labeled as Intermediate Waves A and B. When Intermediate Wave 1 unfolded it was the perfect trap for Elliotticians.

I honestly don't know how this could have been seen before hand. Even though other indicators were oversold the Bulls continued to keep the upper hand in spite of it all.

Once again the count appears to be clear and peaking at 980 will make this complete. So today I'm hoping we turn at 927 (50%) retrace of yesterdays Wave 3, and also the bottom of the M15 Kumo.

Otherwise it will be more about making the count fit the wave rather than predicting which tends to make me uncomfortable.





Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Clearly over bought, which begs the question... Will we get a fifth wave?

I don't know but my guess is yes. This M10 Ichimoku chart looks like it could bounce and elephant up to a Doji. That's I'm waiting for.

Stochastic s and M60 MACD look like they need a need a rest, but I'm hoping there will still be room for a little more. If we don't get it we will have to figure something else out, but the Fibs are looking so right for one last push. (see my previous post from this morning)




Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I've been experimenting with targeting dates for reversals by projecting trend lines. Fibonacci and Pivot points seem to fit this chart. It's just something I wanted to document. It will be interesting to see how it works out.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

This is basically the last EW chart presented over the weekend. By the close on Friday it appeared to me this advance had finished five waves, and was ready for a wave 2 correction. But this bear market correction continues to exhibit and amazing amount of strength, and resilience, and finally hit 943. As you may recall that was the target I had been looking for two weeks ago. Now it appears there may be further to go.

I'm showing Wave A as having peaked at 930 and the end of the triangle as a (Wave ?), because I don't know how it will fit into the overall count. It seems to me that Wave B needed to retrace more of Wave A, and there are also other scenarios that could still play out. Since 943.85 was the peak of wave 4 in Early January 2009, it will provide resistance. It's also R3 Pivot Point.

So short term it looks like we will hesitate here before moving on to higher ground, but I'm not confident right now. There are too many possibilities.

Pedram presented this interesting Double Zig Zag Scenario over the weekend.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.