I feel like the market has beat me to a pulp

It's in no body knows land again. Have you noticed that generally happens on weekends.
Kenny, Daneric, Pedram, Filipe, Rich, me, everybody has a different count. There are enough possible triangles, diagonals, and expanding wave counts to make a person dizzy.

Today I bought FAZ when we hit 1018, but I could almost not do it, because recently I've been on the wrong side so many times.

But 38.2% and yada yada. So I did it. But I'm just holding my breath, and hoping I'm not wrong. So far it's been a good trade, but it will be the first in a long line of loosing trades.

I'm ready to go back to basics. Stochastices and MACD have long provided reliable trade signals. Look at this MACD chart. Sure there are a few places where you would loose commission, but over all it's been a winning indicator. It's great when you catch the top of a wave and ride it, but how many missed waves does it take until we catch one that pays back all the losses? I'm drowning in all these waves that expand out to a larger scale.

What is it that drives a trader to always try to grab more than a simple MACD chart provides? I believe it's the desire to beat the market. I like to feel I'm are in control; smarter then the rest. You know what I mean. But on Monday I'm going to cross my fingers, spin three times around, and hope the MACD turns down.

The feeling of defeat was so strong today, I realized the market had beat me. I was on the edge of joining the bulls, and at that moment I realized that it was the ultimate breaking point.

If they could break me, then they had already broke the public. So I stepped up push the key, and bought FAZ; one more time.

Today was one of the strangest days ever. The divergence between the EUR/USD was confusing. I have relied on these two markets holding hands for so long. It may be an important sign that change is coming.

The oscillators are screaming for a top. How much more divergence can the bulls provide? Fundamentals are screaming too, but the politicians have been able to make it look like a recovery is in sight. I know the Bears will be right one day, I just hope I can hold out till then.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I've been a bear for so long it hurts, but this looks like the top again.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Non Farm Payroll Data

This is the EUR/USD overlayed behind SPY

I don't watch the fundumentals, but something unexplainable was going on this morning. Non Farm Payroll Data was the only thing I could think of, but look at the divergence!







Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Above are the weekly and the Daily SPX Ichimoku charts. Both remain Bullish, but it will not take much to turn them Bearish. The Bears had their way for the second day in a row but daily candle is indecisive. Tenkan-sen is at 987, and it may offer support. The weekly Kumo will probably offer support near 956. That's the chart with the large orange Kumo.

Rich is back and since he did a really fine job of showing his count I'll simply refer you to The Elliott Wave Index Trader.


It looks like the Euro is going to cooperate with the Bears. We have a lot of empty space down below, and I expect both markets to begin taking profits. This is the 30 minute EUR/USD and a large Kumo sits ahead ready to push the price down into a new downward channel. By morning we will know if this is correct.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Thank you Filipe!

I want to thank Filipe Miguel at Elliott Market Waves for his charts.
After looking at Filipe's charts, I realized I needed to shift wave iii over. A few days ago I started all my charts from scratch, and may have made an error but I'm back on track, and now the ED works!

Tomorrow should come down hard on wave three.
We are below the channel
The count works beautifully,
and the Euro peaked with a flare, and should fall over night, taking the SPX down in the morning.


Here is a larger view of the Euro.
There appears to be a good possibility of an ED here too.


Here is a larger view of the S&P 500. The Ending diagonal is a very real possibility for both markets. If not it's still the same count. but with an ED we know where it will turn.


I have decided to fully endorse this count. I had seen it too, but when Kenny began to insist that this count made better sense I climbed on board. There is no denying that the missing 5th wave that left us holding short positions is all too obvious.

So Kudos to Kenny for being bold enough to buck the popular belief, and tell it the way he saw it.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Still in the ED

I'm sorry about the faults alert, I should have waited for the price to actually touch the trend line, but we still have a perfect ED, and tomorrow should reverse. It will probably overthrow the top ED line and possibly hit 1015, but everything still looks like it's in place.

The EWO is still declining and giving a strong sell signal.

BPSPX is at 75.80%, Stochastic levels are high and RSI is at 65.78 down from over 70%.

We are finding support from the Tenkan-sen but a drop below the Kijun-sen which is coming up fast should turn this chart around. The Kumo will provide support at 982 and again at 970 but I'm not looking for a bottom until 940.


Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Here it is!

Next stop 970 destination 930



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

EWO Divergence

The most powerful aspect of the Elliott Wave Oscillator is Divergence. As you can see in the above chart, there has been a huge divergence building. The Bears are close!
Confirmation will be when the EWO crosses zero. The Ending Diagonal is two small ripples from reversal, which will occur tomorrow.

But don't get too excited. While Bullish % may be at 78.05% it needs to go even higher. There will be a second chance for the public to toss their cash into the pot. Believe it or not, the market has even more upside! The market will only retrace to about 930 before making one last advance to the 1050 area. I expect Bullish % to be over 80% when the bottom drops out.

But a 70 point reversal is going to feel very good to the Bears. Every once in a while we get to come out and play too.

This is my fourth post today. If you have not seen the others I would like to suggest that they are worth looking at. So far no one has commented on the scenario I've come to endorse. I'd like to hear from you.






Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Today's Count

Please be sure to read the last two posts. This is a just an update to what has been a somewhat confusing count. We all know the market is going higher than the economy can justify. I think this is why we are seeing so many Ending Diagonals. The market should turn tomorrow morning and my expectation is that it will regress to the bottom trend line of the very large Ending Diagonal (Blue Lines). Other indicators also find support near 935.



Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

ED with Gann Fan

These charts are the Ending Diagonal. The red lines are Gann Fan Lines.
The vertical Red Lines are 218 day cycles.
This Gann Study was recreated from charts I saw on Price Time Volume. I appologize for the small inaccuracies. My software does not suite this type of work.

The Green Line is an Andrews Pitchfork of the entire Bear Market from October 2007.

The Pink Lines are my forcast to finish the Ending Diagonal. We are currently peaking on the third wave of the Ending Diagonal. Please see my previous post for a wider view.

The horizontal lines are Pivot Points with the center being PP.


Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Minor C Ending Diagonal

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.