The Battle Ground

A long weekend has allowed troupes to gain positions for the ensuring battle. Will this advance scare the shorts into covering, or will the Bulls feel fortunate to recapture recent losses?

The above count would indicate a possible bullish open before the Bears take control. As of this post there are fourteen hours before the bell. This week should be very interesting.

The Bears must first secure 990 then begin the march on toward 970, and on to (950,-940) and finally 869!

If this battle is lost to the Bulls, and 1053 is breached, 1070 is likely to be the next front.

Divergence in Stochastics, MACD and Volume indicate a trend change.

Bullish percent is still ridiculously high, but coming down.


Good luck,
Bob


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Black Tuesday

I previously counted Friday's advance as minuette wave 4. It traveled about ten points further than I expected which lead me to study other markets. I now believe Fridays move was minute wave 2 .

The chart above is the $INDU. Unlike the SPX, the first few waves off the top reveal five waves of minuette wave i. We should see a very large sell off on Tuesday as minute wave iii unfolds.

Fridays advance retraced 50% of minute wave i. The R1 Pivot Point will be at 1020 on Tuesday. If the market does not gap down at the open we may climb to the .618% level where I expect the Bears will take control. R1 and the 61.8% levels are nearly the same.

There is not a lot of resistance above except for the M60 and the Weekly Kumos, and the M60 looks vulnerable.

We are on the cusp of a major battle between the Bulls and Bears. The Bulls have very little time to take advantage of the weak area of the Weekly Kumo, and may have already lost their chance to climb above it. The top flattens out at 1053, and this will require a lot of market strength to push beyond. From an Elliott Wave stand point we would have to look at a very bullish scenario like the one presented by Daneric.

Bottom line is the Bears need to break 990. The Bulls need to break 1053. I'm in favor of the Bears.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Fibonacci!

Look how beautifully these Fibonacci retracements line up on 38.2 and 61.8%! It would seem that this is the top but I'm just a little concerned that we may have one more wave to complete wave e.

The left retrace (purple) comes from 1038.

Have you ever notice that Fridays rarely close with a definite answer? I'll bet it leaves us hanging on that question all weekend, and then gap one way or the other at the open.




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Midday Friday

I'm hoping this count holds. If not there is still a possibility that we came out of a wedge, and this is wave ii.

The top of the M30 Kumo is at 1015 and the Daily Tenkan-sen is at 1015.71 providing resistance right here.

We broke out of the previous pitchfork and found higher ground as I warned we might, but we are still in a larger downward fork.

It's come further than I had expected even for Minuette iv, but the count is still intact.

The ES chart below which shows over night trading may give a more clear picture of the count.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

The top of the M60 Kumo is at 1009.48, and the M30 Kumo ranges from 1006 to 1015. If this Elliott Wave count is correct, the SPX should turn at about 1005 - 1007, but I must say a word of caution. We are also above the Pitchfork which is a warning sign that we might see higher prices.

But I'm comfortable with this count. The daily chart shows the price below both the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen. This has given a caution signal to the Bulls, and when the price falls below the DailyKumo at about 943 the Bears will be able to fully relax.

The Daily Kijun-sen at 1004 and Tenkan-sen at 1016 will also offer resistance, so even though there is not a great deal of resistance near by, there is some resistance built in where we need it.

1013.25 **** (Correction 1023.130 We may have completed wave 3 **** is the line in the sand as we would have an Elliott Wave 4th wave overlap.
Tomorrow R1 will be at 1007, and if the market stops there we will see a sell off to the bottom of wave iii near 980.

995 is the level for the Bears to break. That will overlap wave one of what I'm labeling wave C. This will be a good signal for the Bears, but the market will probably bounce at 980 so a little reserve should be shown. Remember this will only be the bottom of wave iii.


If I'm right, and I think I am; we will bounce off 980. That will complete wave iii. Then we will correct back to about 1000 during a larger degree wave 4 correction before commencing wave five down to the familiar 956 area to finish wave one.

I apologize for not referencing wave degrees, but at this point its hard to say; we have a long way down ahead of us, and who can say what degree this little blip will turn out to be.

By the way I could use some help. I'm wondering if anyone else is posting Elliott Wave with ThinkOrSwim... If so would you please let me know so that I can see what they are using for notation colors. I love this program, but I'd like to find notation that works with a colored background. Oh... I guess I could use a white background, but that's so boring.


Let me leave you with this to think about. As you can see in the chart below we broke the trend line. So it's fairly clear that we are finally in P3, but the above count would be invalidated if we overlap 1013.

That would not necessarily be a bullish sign. If the wedge as shown above is correct, we would only be in wave one, and a 78.6% retrace to 1026 or higher would still be OK.

I hate putting my stops out that far, but seriously; I think it's in the bag at this point. This has got to be P3.

Good Trading to you!






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

The top chart is a 60 minute chart. As you can see there is a sloping Kumo which will offer resistance. The second chart is a daily chart. The daily Kumo is quite a ways off, but it will offer support between 945 and 976. The important thing to notice is that the price is below both the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen.

I'm too tired to post the EW charts tonight. But I agree with Kenny and Daneric who have both done a wonderful job of counting the waves. Rich too has some interesting ideas so click on these links if you have not already been there.

Bottom line is, I think we will get an opprotunity to sell a trading range between 1005 and 980 for several days as we work our way through waves four and five and then waves four and five of one degree larger.

I don't know if the large wedge I showed yesterday will prove to be correct. Everyone else seems to be in agreement on the extended third wave. I don't like the way that looks, but then I also feel wave e of the wedge should have extended past the top of the wedge. Time will tell, but the obvious count is very bearish.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Down

This is the only way I can see to count this move. Everything else has overlaps.
There is probably one more wave left to complete wave i.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.