Black Monday

Looks like the ED was a good call today. Monday should be the litmus test.

The Ichimoku is not bearish just yet but there are times when other methods must be our guide.

MoneySpy has been showing weakness. This indicates that money has been coming out of the market while price continues to gain ground. Goldman Sachs has been a big buyer during the past few days, but there are ways to trade internally, driving prices higher while extracting cash. At the close they were a big seller. I expect they will be selling futures contracts before the open. Come Monday's open they dump everything and walk away with the cash from the futures market. They will loose a small amount from actually shares but remember they have already reduced their exposure by buying and selling in a manipulated fashion that drove prices up.

This why I named my indicator MoneySpy. It's designed to see the cash flow behind the obvious price changes. What I find interesting is that with market manipulation like this the Elliott Wave still works.

In the M60 chart below the yellow line is the Time Series Forecast which has been following close to the Tenkan-sen. Both are positioned directly below the price. Any dip in price would change that status to bearish. MoneySpy tends to change right along with the Time Series Forecast, and so it will not take much to tip the scales in favor of the Bears.


On the M60 chart, the ADX/DMI is still looking bullish, but D+ and D- are heading toward each other. I realize that the ADX is actually gaining strength, but I think it will turn. I don't know exactly what it will take to make D+/D- cross but my guess is 10 to 15 points would do it. MACD is overbought the MA is ready to turn. Stochastics have already turned and crossed.

Another one of my favorite indicators is the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The Awesome Oscillator with a WildersAverage is even better. As shown above we have three red bars, and the Histogram is just about to drop below the MA.

It's always a larger risk to pick a top, but it appears to me that Monday will be a very bad day for the Bulls. I can hardly wait! Of course Daneric may be right too, but either way I'm holding my shorts.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Friday

Update 10:00 PST
Looks like an ED to me.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I'd rather be short than long

Looks like we may be close to the top of an ED. Let's let the fundamentalist get their job reports (which are bullshit because so many people are off the books by now). If I could file for unemployment I would have done it one year ago, but I'm self-employed so the stats don't even know about me

Anyhow they get their better than expected news in the morning, and wave e thrusts for one last stupid move by the bulls. Then we slam down out of the wedge. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

Actually I should be happy because MoneySpy has been performing very well, and now I've discovered Time Series Forecast included with TOS. Between these two indicators the market has become transparent. I'd also like to mention that Alexander at AMBG has been forecasting the market with very good results with his proprietary formula. I'd suggest getting on his update mailing list. His new format is a lot easier to understand and has been quite accurate.

On this chart I have indicated spots where each of my indicators gave signals to buy long, take profit, and sell short.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Late wednesday evening

You may have noticed that I'm kind of a nut for math. The above chart shows the "Time Series Forecast" provided in the standard TOS studies. I wish I know the formula for this as it seems to give similar signals as MoneySpy. The sub-chart "Time Series Volume" is something else I'm working on. It's still kinda raw, and I did not intend to show it, but I don't feel like redoing the screen capture. As you can see, it's got some interesting patterns that may be useful as a co-indicator with MoneySpy.

I'm not sure how I will do this but MoneySpy may be a good algorithm to incorporate into other indicators like the MACD. Just an idea I'm tossing around

Anyhow I just thought I would show the "Time Series Forecast" provided in the standard TOS studies as I've never seen anyone else present it and it does appears to be worthy attention.

It's still a bit up in the air ,but I believe we will be down hard tomorrow. If we still have further up side to work through I'm confident that short positions will eventually pay off within the week..

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Wednesday

After Market Close:
This is how I see the count. Wave 1 was over lapped.
We have finished below the March trend line for the past six days.
We have had 38% retrace and ended near the top of wave 4.
MoneySpy is very close to issuing a sell.
The hourly Stochastic has just crossed at the top, and has plenty of room before we are oversold.
Ichimoku:
Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen cross is bullish but below the Kumo and Price is below the Tenkan-sen.
The price bounced off the Kumo right where I said it would try to push through. It failed to make it through the weakest section.




10:49 PST
Not much has changed but it looks like minute wave [ii] green should finish around 1066.
MoneySpy is still above the zero line.
The Ichimoku has the price pinned in between the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen and the Kumo. There's a weak spot in the Kumo at about one hour before the close. This is probably where it will make it's move toward the flat top.


08:27 PST
Price has met resistance at the Kimo and is above the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen which are almost ready to cross. This is a warning to the Bears but not completely Bullish. The flat top of the Kumo will offer even more resistance at 1071.78, which may fit well with the EW count for a fifth wave to complete a possible wave A or wave 2.

MoneySpy appears to be peaking which would also fit well for a top.





Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Tuesday

Update 12:30 PST
Possible wave 1 LD
This is an M15 chart


This second chart (above) is just a long shot and not my first pick. The degrees are off on the wedge. The problem with the LD idea is that it should be a 5 count on wave 1.







Ichimoku has a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross with price below.
The flat Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have become support/resistance.
MoneySpy is also going Bearish with a cross below the buy/sell line. Since this hour has not closed this is still open to change. The M30 chart has waffled back up over the line.

I've felt a sense of ownership after so much work, but I'm going to share with you the formula for MoneySpy as I am not able to keep you updated with charts. I worked at this for quite a while to find a relationship with the money going into and out of the market. After many failed attempts I found a way to account for the stocks at each volume they were purchased. Basically I thought if one share is purchased for a $1.00 and the next purchase is four shares at $1.25 then the average price is 5 shares for $6 or $1.20 per share. I called this the True Price.

The next thing to do was compare it to something else to find a relationship. I tried many ideas like dividing the average and averaging the results. It was basically trial and error until it looked like it was working.
Finally I discovered that subtracting the average price from what I am calling the True Price and plotting the chart you get MoneySpy. I know this sounds simple but let me tell you it was not that simple finding it. Since I'm a big fan of Fibonacci numbers; I chose numbers like 3,5,8 and 13 for the longer MA. 8 worked out pretty well but eventually 10 worked out better. So here's the formula.

def length = 10;
def V_Ttl = (Volume[1] + Volume);
def TRUEPRICE = ( (Close[1] * (Volume[1] / V_Ttl)) + (Close * (Volume / V_Ttl)));
Plot MoneySpy = TRUEPRICE - Average(Close, length);

But here's the thing; over the years just about everything possible has been tried. Recently while looking for ways to account for strength and interest in the market I discovered that the basic idea for MoneySpy appears to have been used back in 1970 by Buff Dormeier. Buff did not stop with this basic concept. He also continued to massage the data with more formulas, and finally in the end he multiplies several components to arrive at what he calls the VPCI.

I'm pretty sure I have understood his entire formula, and have added a second cloud to my charts to show the effects of his more robust algorithm.
If you are interested in recreating this study, I would suggest looking up VPCI. I found the literature to be such that I may have misinterpreted his formula, therefore I'm going to continue to call this MoneySpy, because I don't want to misrepresent the VPCI written by Buff Dormeier. Besides Buff did not plot his chart with the components graphically separated as I have. The results are nearly the same but it seems that Buffs added components help to show diverging situations more clearly.


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Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Monday

This looks like we are getting close to the bottom of wave 1. I should clarify that I believe we are in wave 4 of 1. 1024 is still a likely target. The Hourly MoneySpy has turned up indicating a loss of momentum.

The Ichimoku remains Bearish, but keep an eye on the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen as they may cross which would be a warning if you are short.

L8R, I'm off to work.





Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.