MoneySpy on a weekly chart

I made this study of MoneySpy on a Weekly Basis. If you were to Buy/Sell at the Zero line and take profit at any reversal.

Here are the results:
During a 271 point gain from March to July13 this system would have had a 77 point gain, with one loosing trade. Since July 13 you would have been long with a 157 point gain to date.

Below are the results of a study of the Daily chart.

The 60 minute chart below shows an astounding 85 point gain while the market moved only 55 points.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Tuesday

M60 MoneySpy has been waffling back and forth over the Buy/Sell line, and is currently in sell mode.
We turned at the upper Pitchfork
Ichimoku has issued a warning to the Bulls.
and VervoortCrossover has issued a sell.

There may be hope for the Bears



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Free Week Trashed the Wave

I've heard it said that whenever EWI has a Free Week the Elliott Wave fails to perform.
But I'll be honest. I'm loosing my confidence in Elliott Wave Theory, and I've been a Elliottian since the early 1980's.

The chart above shows the point at which MoneySpy would have us Long or Short. The points at which to take profits is less defined. While it is always a gainful trade to exit at the turning point, that method often misses a good portion of the run. The current state of MoneySpy appears to be close to issuing a Short , but until the line is crossed it only shows that money is coming out of the market.

But I'll ask you; what's better? EW which even after the wave is complete leaves the pros debating, or a system with a high percentage of profitable trades with clear cut entry and exit points? I used to put all my faith in EW, but now I'd rather make small profits on a regular basis instead of consistently loosing money, and telling myself I'll do better next time. OK I'm feeling bitter about my recent performace. But the biggest problem I have with EW is that the stops keep getting moved. It always appears that there is another scenario that will work out.

Anyhow I've numbered this chart with what I see as a possible EW count. I'll be looking forward to Kenny, Pedram, and Rich's counts. Of course the stop is at the recent high of 1099 /ES. By then I'll be broke. Just kidding but I will be painful.

The Andrews Pitchfork and MoneySpy. Stochastics, MACD ADX/DMI and Moving averages are something you can depend on, and are clear cut, with no interpretation required.

We are now at the top of the Pitchfork. This indicates that wehave a VERY high reliability factor that the market will turn down, but until the lower trend line has been significantly breached, shorts will be a high risk position.

The Ichimoku continues to be bullish with Price 25 points above the M60 Kumo. Even the Ichimoku would have out performed the Elliott wave over the past few months. This is basically a long term indicator, but for currencies I like to use 5 minute charts. For FAZ and FAS I like to use 60 minute charts.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Monday

The one hour MoneySpy has begun to peak. I don't know how to count this, but Dan was right. We had more upside. If you missed it you should check out his wave 2 theory.

I've got to go to work, so I will probably not be around to let you know if MoneySpy crosses below the buy/sell line. I'm assuming this is a top for wave ii. I'm hoping it's the final thrust.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Black Monday

Looks like the ED was a good call today. Monday should be the litmus test.

The Ichimoku is not bearish just yet but there are times when other methods must be our guide.

MoneySpy has been showing weakness. This indicates that money has been coming out of the market while price continues to gain ground. Goldman Sachs has been a big buyer during the past few days, but there are ways to trade internally, driving prices higher while extracting cash. At the close they were a big seller. I expect they will be selling futures contracts before the open. Come Monday's open they dump everything and walk away with the cash from the futures market. They will loose a small amount from actually shares but remember they have already reduced their exposure by buying and selling in a manipulated fashion that drove prices up.

This why I named my indicator MoneySpy. It's designed to see the cash flow behind the obvious price changes. What I find interesting is that with market manipulation like this the Elliott Wave still works.

In the M60 chart below the yellow line is the Time Series Forecast which has been following close to the Tenkan-sen. Both are positioned directly below the price. Any dip in price would change that status to bearish. MoneySpy tends to change right along with the Time Series Forecast, and so it will not take much to tip the scales in favor of the Bears.


On the M60 chart, the ADX/DMI is still looking bullish, but D+ and D- are heading toward each other. I realize that the ADX is actually gaining strength, but I think it will turn. I don't know exactly what it will take to make D+/D- cross but my guess is 10 to 15 points would do it. MACD is overbought the MA is ready to turn. Stochastics have already turned and crossed.

Another one of my favorite indicators is the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The Awesome Oscillator with a WildersAverage is even better. As shown above we have three red bars, and the Histogram is just about to drop below the MA.

It's always a larger risk to pick a top, but it appears to me that Monday will be a very bad day for the Bulls. I can hardly wait! Of course Daneric may be right too, but either way I'm holding my shorts.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Friday

Update 10:00 PST
Looks like an ED to me.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

I'd rather be short than long

Looks like we may be close to the top of an ED. Let's let the fundamentalist get their job reports (which are bullshit because so many people are off the books by now). If I could file for unemployment I would have done it one year ago, but I'm self-employed so the stats don't even know about me

Anyhow they get their better than expected news in the morning, and wave e thrusts for one last stupid move by the bulls. Then we slam down out of the wedge. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

Actually I should be happy because MoneySpy has been performing very well, and now I've discovered Time Series Forecast included with TOS. Between these two indicators the market has become transparent. I'd also like to mention that Alexander at AMBG has been forecasting the market with very good results with his proprietary formula. I'd suggest getting on his update mailing list. His new format is a lot easier to understand and has been quite accurate.

On this chart I have indicated spots where each of my indicators gave signals to buy long, take profit, and sell short.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.