Fibonacci Ratios

Weekly OEX

Daily OEX

Hourly OEX

It's raining in Nothern CA. With time on my hands I started playing around with these ratios.

The market did exactly as I expected today. I'm looking forward to Monday but there may be a period of consolidation next week if we are still in wave 1. So far it appears that we still need a fifth wave. If so the wave 2 will keep us in this range.

On the other hand we may be ready to start wave three on Monday if today was wave 2.

The Daily MoneySpy chart issued a SELL!

I think it would be best to let the Pitchfork, and the Ichimoku confirm the move along with a sell signal from MoneySpy Hourly.

Thanks to Kenny's Girlfriend I found this very helpful Pivot Point site today. Check it out!


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Friday

8:40 PST


The bottom of the Kumo will provide support.

MoneySpy is diverging from the price trend, indicating that the market may consolidate in this area before moving lower.

Keep an eye on the Pitchfork. For me this is the best indicator of price range and a significant breakout would indicate the next direction.

If this is wave 3 we may even see a breakout below the pitchfork with a powerful wave three, but I'm not expecting that to happen.

The Ichimoku is neutral to slightly bearish. For now I expect the price to be contained within the pitchfork and the Kumo.

By the way the Fibonacci Spiral is the same spiral I drew several days ago when making those Fibonacci charts. I have not adjusted the parameters to look this good.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Thursday

13:00 PST

OK, I still haven't left for my job. Good thing I'm the boss.
I just had to point out the way Price has followed the Kumo.

Still looking for one more wave down. My guess is that the Bottom of the Kumo will bounce the price back up. I don't have any ideas on how far though. But it would be Bullish if we break out of the top of the Kumo.

The Euro looks like it's heading to at least 1.4900 so that makes me feel a bit more confident about this forecast.




11:30 PST
Well I have to go play at my real job so I'll leave you with this chart of Fibonacci Ratios.
Good luck.


10:15 PST

I caught Elliott playing with his toys again.
This count is a stretch because the larger picture looks more corrective than impulsive, but nobody else has been right lately. Yesterday's triangle looked like money in the bank.


Here's an update to MoneySpy Hourly on the SPX. The previous charts today were the /ES.

09:00

Elliott has been sent to his room without his toys.

This first chart is a daily chart with MoneySpy, Stochastic, Awesome Oscillator, MACD, and the DMI/ADX.

This next chart is an hourly chart with MoneySpy, Stochastic, Awesome Oscillator, MACD, and the DMI/ADX.

Below are three Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charts with MoneySpy in order of Weekly, Daily and Hourly.



If you look closely you will see an ascending light gray Andrews Pitchfork. I took a small liberty and placed the lower trend line in a position that made the center line follow the market lows. It's still bit early for me to speculate the limits of a downward pitchfork.

As I write this MoneySpy has bottomed, but that bar is still in transition so it may finish with a hold short signal. Having broken 1097 was significant. Currently the EUR/USD is Bearish and bumping against resistance from the Kumo. This is an hourly chart.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Wednesday

Update 12:35 PST

Wave C and D are disputable, but this is the general idea. This happens to fit pretty well with Alexanders forecast too.




Update 11:12 PST
There's a triangle in there, but I'm not sure how to count it. My best guess is we break out to the upside to finish a fifth wave. What's your opinion?


Update 10:30 PST
The Price has dipped below the Tenkan-sen and exited below the Pitchfork. MoneySpy has resided below the sell line for the best part of the day.

This is considered a warning to the Bulls, but with stong support just below from the Kijun-sen and the Kumo it is still too risky for me to go short. For the scalper I believe there my be a small 10 point play. But each time we test Tuesdays low of 1102 we make a higher low which makes me cautious.

If we do break 1102, the market may move quickly through the support levels, so it's a difficult call to make.




07:35 PST

MoneySpy has once again crossed the Buy/Sell line. But it does not feel right. Looking at the chart it appears that this could be a correction and higher prices may come later in the day. I'm waiting for a more definitive breakdown.

The Ichimoku (not shown) remains Bullish.





Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Fibonacci Confluence

There appears to be a Fibonacci confluence near 1114.42. I would advise waiting until confirmation comes from the Andrews Pitchfork, The Ichimoku and MoneySpy. But I have a feeling the market may turn near 1114.42 tomorrow.

If that Fibonacci area is passed by then 1128.42.




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Tuesday

Daneric posted an interesting Fibonacci chart today. He made no claim to it's relevance and neither do I. It's just an interesting observation.


MoneySpy dipped slightly below zero, and Price also dipped below the Andrews Pitchfork , but I held off from posting this today because there were too many other factors that did not support a Short sale. The pitchfork really needs to be broken by more than this small amount. Last Friday Price dipped about 10 points below the fork and recovered. Also Price is above the Kumo and a new low was never made to confirm the move.

As it turns out, so far that was a good call because the Price is back above the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen, and MoneySpy is now back above zero

In this this chart I have changed the colors so that the Tenkan-sen is green and the Kijun-sen is red. This seems logical as green above red looks bullish to me. I reprogrammed the study to always show this change from now on.

Please notice the bottom of the Kumo. This will offer a good amount of support at 1097. Today would have been the perfect chance to pass through the Kumo but it appears the opportunity was missed.

Also i'd like to point out the way Price has followed the edge of the Kumo. I believe the market is near it's peak but with Alexander looking for the next four days to be up and a strong base to launch another Bull move, it would careless to go short here until 1097 is taken out with a strong move.

It seems no body can help me with the significance if the VIX.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

VIX

I know it's unusual for the author of a Blog to ask advise from his readers, but the VIX baffles me. I spent the weekend reading about, and plotting charts to see what so many find informative.

Above is a chart where I detected periods where the VIX moved the same way as the /ES. Those small red segments in the lower chart are the only times when the VIX did not move contrary to the /ES. I added a gray dash time line to help align these moments.

The blue line is the /ES plotted as an inverted chart. Pretty much the two charts follow each other. All I see is that an inverted chart of the market price follows the VIX. Currently I recognize that the market price is going up faster than the VIX is going down, but I don't get much out of that either.

I would really like to understand the importance of this index. I do understand how it is useful for option traders to place a value on options, and how that can be an indicator of pessimism. But that logic can be taken both ways.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.