Blog Archive

Monday, August 25, 2014


12 days ago I wrote this to dchrist81
Thanks for noticing! I was off by 10 handles, but I'm happy with the forecast. We are approaching a range between 1965 and 1985. If we break through that range I believe we will see 2040 or higher. I don't follow fundamentals but I believe there may be some news coming that will concern currency revaluations that may kick things off one way or the other.

While the market did not exhibit a range 1985 did cause the market to pause.  2040 or higher is still my target.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014


I did not expect the lower end of the purple area to be broken, but the sell points held.  We seem to be in a struggle between these two forks.  My guess is we will slip into the lower red fork and break out of the blue fork.

2040 is looking quite possible at this point.  I think it best to wait for full conformation before declaring the Bull run over.  

I was looking at Permabear and Tony Caldaro's charts and see some really interesting possibilities.
You may also want to entertain the charts Dan has been drawing.   Each makes a compelling case for the long term. 

I always thought the market reflected the economy, but it's become clear that the economy has little to do with the market any longer.  Corporations have gained so much control over us that they will continue to feed off the lower and middle class until there is nothing left.  It's all about their greed.   There was a time when people mattered, but these blood suckers don't even care enough to leave us alive.  They will continue to suck the money out of everyone till they bleed us dry.  Profit will go ever onward till there is no more.

Monday, July 7, 2014


I expect the market will trade within the purple area and top out near 2000.  2040 is possible.  The 20 DMA should hold.  To be conservative and not get fooled my long term sell point remains slightly below 1900..  A slightly more risky short would be just below 1935, but I believe we will make new highs before this occurs. 

Monday, June 30, 2014


Shows weeks in a row of the same direction
It was seventeen days ago that I drew a fork and said the cyan area indicated the preferred range.

You folks have been watching me long enough that you should now know what to look for.
I'd like to hear your views.  PermaBear is the only analyst to share his opinions, and he and I get the same or at least similar read so how about making this a little more fun.

What's are the charts telling you?   Do you see any patterns?  Is it explosive or do we need to move laterally for a few more days?  Does 2000 look attainable? 

Saturday, June 21, 2014


Monday's forecast could not have been any more accurate. 

There is still room to the upside as indicated by the big blue rectangle, but I feel the market is more likely to pause next week, and remain within the high and low limits of the cyan rectangle .  Basically I'm sticking to Monday's forecast and waiting for confirmation of the giddy end when all the money is in.  The big one is close at hand.

The VIX is at ridiculously low levels, but until the Volume Profile support at 1900 & (50DMA) fails, it seems too risky to call for a trend change..

Monday, June 16, 2014


I presented this downward fork on Friday.  Today the market respected the limits of this fork as well as the bottom tine of the larger upward fork.  As I said on Friday I'm looking for a range within the area indicated by cyan but a downside of 1900 remains a possibility. 

Friday, June 13, 2014


The 1958 target was approached.  Close enough anyhow.  Now the question is - was that the capitulation and is the major trend changing direction?

First observation is that it did not look like a euphoric all in capitulation.  Second is that 1900 will offer a strong support.

This chart shows where I would expect the market to trade for a while.  Preferably in the Cyan area and possibly dipping to the 1900 area.  I think there is going to be one more run at the 1958 target, but should the price fall through the support at 1900 range, it will most likely indicate this long bull market has shifted.

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