As much as I would like to keep this non-technical I feel I have to show why I am saying what I say. To understand these counts you need to remember we are looking for five waves I, II, III, IV and V. The green count shows us as still being in wave III.The simple non-technical bottom line is we are still ruled by bears.

As you may recall I said we were getting close to a bottom. I also said a simple wave 2 begets a complex wave 4. Well the red wave count did not develop a complex wave 4 and it is not even close to the upper trend line. Therefore even though I had hoped for the red count to be true, it appears that the light green count is more likely to be correct.

This means that we probably have a fair amount of downside to go before we get the false rally. It also means that that rally may not take us as high as I had hoped. When we hit bottom I will be able to calculate an expected Fibonacci retracement for that rally.