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Thursday, May 21, 2009

Is that bull dead?

This chart is not my preferred count, but even though the bull is wounded this chart is still valid.

The Bearish count is looking good but we are not out of the woods yet.

Please refer to the top chart.

We took out 899.99 but, there is still that little unresolved matter of Wave 1 at 876 from back on April 17th that needs to be taken out. I have simply moved the iv-C (iv of Wave C) over to form a flat correction on the Bullish chart. Be careful this bull may not be dead yet. This may only mean that the Bull will not make his target as quickly as it appeared two days ago.

Here is the current Bear Count. I expect tomorrow to trade between the first and second supports as Wave 2 is formed. It appears to me that wave 5-1-C is complete.

I placed my stops at 908.72 as this would invalidate the impulse wave from 924.60 to 879.61. Just 4 points is all we need. This is the second time that line has held.

Below is an M15 chart showing the correction as the price makes it's way back home to the Kumo. The bottom line is we need to be patient for wave 4 to correct and then over lap 876 to finally put an end to that possibility.

The EUR/USD has continued to hold its gains, but it's getting stretched a long way from the Kumo, and looks like a pull back is in order. As usual this will probably trade with the SPX tomorrow so if you have access keep an eye on the EUR/USD.

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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