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Friday, May 22, 2009

Outside the Box

This will be one of the most controversial posts I've ever made, and I'd really like to hear from you - my readers.

Tell me what you think - Please!


If this is (Wave v), then this is the best I can come up with. It does not look like an impulse wave. There should be more carry through, but I want to keep my mind open to all possible scenarios as you will see later in this post. Please if you see a better Bullish count, let me know.

Below are the Bearish charts I've recently favored. I like the way this has developed. The lack of interest from the Bulls to pull of a sharp looking correction may be a good indication that they are ready to take their profits. I find it interesting that many other annalist (even those who do not follow Elliott Wave are looking at 876. When we break that level I think we will gap. Yeah it will probably be on the open. Morning Gaps are becoming the norm.

The Ichimoku is bearish again . The Kumo held back the Bulls very nicely today just as predicted. This is the M60 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart.

Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen has a bearish cross, and the price is below the Kumo. Lesser charts are bearish as well

May 4th through May 7th was the last time we have had three days in a row with a higher close. This seems indicative of a trend change. I wish the MACD looked more bearish, but it has room for some downside action.

Stochastics are looking good for the Bears.

Even though the EUR/USD has deviated, and gave me a scare this morning it still seems to have a relation to the SPX on a short term basis. The Dollar will probably find a range to trade for a while but there is no telling what it will be doing in three days. Currently it's over bought which may help the bears at the open on Tuesday. We have had a 600 pip bull run with no meaningful pull back. (I only caught pieces of that) It is ready for a 200 pip retrace to about 138. If I'm right, that would be a possition worth about $2000/contract. Just for grins I'll place and leave an order in my practice account, and let you know how it did.

Dang, I forgot the market is closed right now. Any how we can check on that next week.




OK I said controversial.... here's a count I need for someone to shoot it down. I see this as a very real count, and hope to heard from you. If you count EW waves, please let me know what you think. The good thing is that this is bearish too. Two strong bear charts beat a weak Bull chart any day.


Well, good luck with trade withdrawl, it's going to be difficult for me to wait till Tuesday. What the heck are we going to eat and breath till then?




Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

2 comments:

  1. your wave count looks funny but any other count would also look funny with this pattern... you should believe what you see and i see your count having a high percentage of being right...now that i have see it i will have a hard time with anything else... daneric's still bearish but uptrending count to about 1000 looks good also..

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for looking at the alternate bear count.
    I'm going to call it "The BIG Flat Chart" to avoid confusion with other Alt counts.

    If it stands up to debate, I think it will have to be considered later because the Wave C to 1011 may not be in our future. The good thing is that it places us in a similar bearish position for now.

    Thank you for mentioning Daneric. I had not heard of him, but I can tell he is very popular. I'll make sure to look at his blog from time to time.

    I will have to spend more time studying his count for Wave A. I would never have seen a triangle during the month of April. Oh well we both end up at the same place for the peak of Major Wave A, but I like that he adds a whole new perspective.

    His Bullish count seems like wishful thinking. Even he does not sound like he is backing that count.

    ReplyDelete

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