Blog Archive

Saturday, May 2, 2009

So far it looks good BUT...

Sadly this is a possible count.
(See my comment below. This scenario may have a flaw.)

Below is the count I hope will happen,
but the Ichimoku charts are telling me we could make one more high.
If it turns back down on Mondays open it will be a very strong case for this count being correct.

This is the M10 Ichimoku SP-500 chart.
M10 and M5 are the most bearish charts under M60.
It's possible that the top of the M10 Kumo will hold.

OK I'm ready to pull my hair out!

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.


  1. Rich, whom I asked to look at my Bullish scenario pointed out that this was not a possible count (Top Chart).

    The reason is that waves 3 and 3 over lap. I'm so glad to be able too put that one to rest.

    Rich and I have similar Bearish counts but his is far more swift. With mine the B wave drop would be drawn out over a week or two.

    He believes we are ready to smash through down to 830 within two days. The close on Friday would be the end of wave b of B, and my wave 1 would be wave a of B.

    If Rich is right the market will be down hard on Monday.

  2. After closer inspection and going over all the rules I know, I don't see what Rich saw. I'll add another comment after he clears that up for me.

  3. Rich has told me that he does not see this as a possible scenario because wave 4 can not overlap the top of wave 1.

    That's a rule I follow.

    I don't wish to get pushy but I don't see an overlap so I stand by this scenario. If you see what he is talking about I wish you would explain it to me.

    This is such a critical junction that the market could go either way, but the Elliott Wave count fits so well for a Bearish scenario that I refuse to be moved by the Ichimoku's very Bullish charts.

    This is clearly a case of having to know which system to trade by.


Today's Feature