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Saturday, May 30, 2009

This fist chart is probably bettered by the following charts But it's what I saw.Staying with the scenarios I've been using recently I have made both Bear and Bull charts as seen above.

I'm starting to become confused by all the possible ways to count the various scenarios.
So for my own clarification I'm going to show the counts I think have merit,
beginning with a count posted on Daneric's blog.

It's also a very bullish count with the expectation that the market
will begin Wave e to complete Wave X on Monday.
This will be a 5-3-5-3-5 triangle.
So Wave e will have to finish with five waves.
Daneric researched and documented an interesting rule from
Elliott Wave Principals about X Wave Triangles.

I must have a different version of the EWP but I'll try to find it too.
This next chart is the recent bearish scenario I have been using.

Another Bearish scenario assumes the fifth wave of Wave C failed to make a new high.
This places the Peak of Wave A at 924.60 as can be seen in the chart below.

The chart below is the bullish scenario I've been charting recently.
It assumes Wave A finished at 930
This next scenario assumes Wave C has extended. This was looking very good until Tuesday the 26th, when the market lost vitality. By late Thursday the 28th this scenario suffered a crushing blow. Wave 4 over lapped Wave 1 and thus W X waves have been inserted to keep this chart alive.
I just visited Rich's blog and see what I missed.
He saw the triangle
In the past the Elliott Wave has served me well, but after putting this together I can see how some think it's more about making the count fit the wave than about making accurate predictions. Elliotticians have certainly been getting their butts kicked. That may be a good thing because it will tend to make all of us think harder, and look further for variations we may have over looked. Kudos to Tony Caldaro who was one of the few who caught the bottom in March. I still kick myself for being so close minded.

One thing I've noticed is that, come Monday the market had better go down. I have no labels for an upward move. Even the Bull charts require a reversal!

Let me leave you with an M60 Ichimoku chart. All the time periods are Bullish although somewhat over bought as they flying high above the clouds.

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.


  1. I do agree with your bullcharts with those triangles. I think this has been very frustrating market for anyone who trade stocks or SPX.

    Interesting blog, accidently found this from somwhere. I had tried to track mostly eurodollar in my blog, often with trendemous lag also ;)

    It´s been one of the most wild product there in recent weeks and months while SPX has been flat.

    Some relations between stockmarket and FX market will be found out later.

  2. now that monday is up huge does it change ur mindset--more bearish?

  3. Hi iv,

    I saw a completed five waves near the close on Friday, and did not see this coming. Turns out we had completed the five waves on Thursday and were in fact beginning what I'm now counting as Wave 3.

    I tend to see the Bullish counts as having the best chance, but like I've said, I'm not clear enough to take a position.

    I'm hoping that once we get back into a Bearish impulse wave, I'll get a back on track with the count. I'm not a permabear, but I have not been clear since March.

    Did any of those charts I posted over the weekend resonate with you?


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