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Monday, May 4, 2009

Unkwown Wave

I first need to post the correct chart for my invalid count. The line showing the overlap was in the wrong place.

This chart also shows the market at the open. The stops at 881were quickly taken out at the opening. I only have one pattern that fits this chart, and I really hate to use it because it's one of the strangest waves documented by Frost and Prechter.

The wave is called the Unkown Wave Extension. This is a link to Bulkowski's Elliott Wave rules, where he describes a wave with 4 wave extension waves added to a 5 wave count. Each of the waves being so similar that the exact count can not be determined.

Kind of a cop out to be sure, but it does have a specific ending of nine waves, and appearance which defines the end of the Unknown wave. Should this be the case the wave will look similar to the chart below.

I felt that I had to edit this post because my first drawing would have had an overlap. That's why I have depicted the current wave as trading in a small range until we hit the bottom of the channel again.

Also I've played around with Fibonacci ratios, and come up with 944 as a possible target for the top. The target for Wave B just keeps moving up each time I move the peak of Wave A

I wish I had placed less faith in Elliott and more in MACD, Stochastics and Ichimoku.

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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