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Saturday, June 20, 2009

Outside the Box

The current count appears to be so clear that this seems like a lesson in futility, but in an effort not to be taken by surprise I believe it is prudent to make alternate counts. They may not seem likely, but the market is a fickle beast, and it pays to be ready.

So what if we immediately head backup above 956? Other than Minor Wave B retracing all of Minor A, the only way I can imagine that we would make a new high before completing Minor wave C is if we are in an Intermediate X wave, suggesting a triple zigzag from the March lows with three more (A B C) Intermediate waves to go. Since an X wave can be a wild card it would work, but it would be a wacky count. Remember I'm not advocating this count, but simply trying to play devils advocate.

Daneric presented a similar idea, and he too admited it was not technically sound by EW standards.

While playing around with alternative counts I came up with a few others. Each would already have us in Minor Wave C two of them assume that we completed Minor B by way of a double zigzag, and the third assumes a running flat for minute wave b.

I still believe the market will be up Monday morning to finish Minor C as depicted in my chart below. The 915 line has been tested four times now. If we break that, I believe I would grab my bear suit and order up some short positions.
But let me leave you with just one more "outside the box" idea.

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

1 comment:

  1. I keep coming back to look at this chart and I'm beginning to feel like we may actually be in wave c. Stochastics are looking like a gap down would fit. I've also been playing around with Andrews Pitchfork. This is something new to me, but it too seems to be indicating that B has peaked.

    The alternative counts may not be without merit.


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