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Saturday, July 18, 2009

Afloat in the cloud

This morning I looked carefully at both the S&P and the Euro count, and I now see that the Euro triangle was an illusion. I have tried very hard to make a bearish count of the S&P, and simply can not find a way to make it work. Then I reevaluated the Euro, and I now see how it too is poised in the exact same count.

We will very likely finish (Minor Wave 1) on Monday. Calculating the target of (Minor Wave 1) is proving difficult because of the proportions of the accent, but my best guess is 966 to 974.

We may then correct to about 930 on (Minor Wave 2) of (Intermediate Wave C).

The Andrews Pitchfork below shows that we are on the outside fringe of the channel. That's normal. I drew a second pitchfork (white) but I expect to see the channel broken on Monday.

The target for (Int. C / P2) has been 1007 for quite awhile, and I believe it is still a good target, but I have found it often helps the find intersecting trend lines in order to time and predict peaks.

A probable time for a peak of Primary 2 can be found by drawing a trendline from 28 January 2009, coming across the peaks in May and June, and finding the point of intersection with the bottom trendline from May to July 2009. The point at which these trend lines intersect is mid October in the area of 1030. Therefore my target zone lies within the range of 1007 and 1030 in October.

This Ichimoku chart shows a similar area of resistance and support. We are currently just within the Kumo, and will most likely float ever upward inside of the cloud until we reach the very strong resistance at the top of the Kumo. A long flat top indicates strong resistance.

Analysis presented on this blog has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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