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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

My triangle scenario was trashed, so I took a small profit on my FAZ trade. I feel like I should be short, but I just can't figure out why, so I'm going to hang back and see what happens.

Rich has a couple of scenarios going as does Daneric, but I don't get a sure thing feeling about either of them. The waves are ambiguous, and while it my be the big moment we have been waiting for, I'm just going to wait and see. When we set bearish trend, we will know, and there will be plenty of opportunity to short. One thing I've learned is, it's better to grab a little of a sure thing than continually loose to an unrelenting market that gives no opportunity to exit from a bad trade with any grace.

I'm exhausted after a day of work, so I'll just comment on the Ichimoku chart. We closed near the bottom of the candle and we have two down days in a row with lower highs andlower lows. So the bears are begining to show some force. The price is a dollar below the Tenkan-sen which is the first real indication of any weakness since early July.

Kijun-sen will offer support around 950 and the Kumo is thin so there is a real possibility of a major reversal beginning.

With the sharp sell off at the close I'm guessing we will open down. The EUR/USD and the SPX no longer seem to be moving together. I'm really missing that as an indicator.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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