Blog Archive

Sunday, August 16, 2009

P2 wins 7 to 4

The results of the poll where I asked "Does the Wave 4 of P1 work for you" is
1 - I don't know
2 - This is just a correction, we will go to 19000.
4 - Yes, we never got Wave 5 in March
7 - No we are in P2.

I like to watch the channels for an indication of when a wave finishes. Certainly a case can be made either way, but that is why I like the wave 4 of P1 theory.

By looking at different markets more insight may be gained.

Since most of us trade on short term movements, it is probably safer to continue to number the waves as if we are in P2. It will also help to keep continuity between other analyst since there are not many who chart the P1 theory. Kenny is the only one I know of.

I will of course show an Alt count once in a while.

Have you got a question you would like to see brought to a vote?

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.


  1. Hi Bob, Great site and charts. If you’re fielding questions- have you considered the scenario that has the Nov lows as A. And then an irregular flat with us completing B here. I’m wondering why the correction from a bull market is being counted as primary 1-2-3-4-5 and not ABC? An C wave down from this rally would be 5 waves and complete the correction. An primary {3} wave would need to be longer than {1} and by most counts that is more than 910 points. An C wave relationship seem more probable. If we are in 4 and still have wave 5 down to just complete primary {1} where would primary {3} need to take us?

  2. The question about Primary Wave 1 or Wave A depends on the scale you wish to attribute to this Bear market. Is it Wave 1 of A, or simply Wave A?

    I think this is Wave 1 of Wave A because this is a Bear market of Grand Super Cycle scale.

    Prechter is looking for Wave A to take us to 400 on the DOW. To call this Wave A is far to optimistic in my opinion.

    So, no I don't see this as Primary B and November low as wave A. But I have raised the question about this being a Wave 4 correction with Wave 3 ending in November. I'm not adamant about it. It just looks like a good possibility. If this count is correct I'd guess Wave 5 would end slightly lower than 666.7 maybe around 600. That would be the bottom of P1. Time will tell.

    Someday I would like to find the time to look at different indexes for an answer to this question. It seems to me that the fifth wave in April should have shown up. I'd like to find in other indexes.

  3. Thank you Bob. I agree on the scale of the financial collapse. I don't count waves for the Dow and think pretcher is slightly misguided(as usual). For the SPX though you can clearly see if this is only 1 of A we will run out of value on the SPX very quickly. If W3 of A = W1 of A SPX will be $108. It's impossible for me to think of what would bring the market back up from that point- yet alone still have wave C down. I'll let the market force that bearish of a count. Keeping this as Primary B. If C = .5 of A we'll be at 580 for C wave. If we've topped!
    thank you.


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