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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

This ain't P3

Today was especially difficult for me to count as we had a lot of waves that looked more like threes than five counts. I feel pretty confident that these charts work, but some of small waves on the top chart don't show clear five wave structure . Dealing with all of the overlaps was also a nightmare.

Chime in with comments during the day if you see any errors, and please feel free to make suggestions. It's always helpful to get a second opinion. That's why I share my ongoing count throughout the day. But with the market in motion there is a lot to rearranging of the count as the market reveals more of itself, so it's easy to get lost in the process.

Unfortunately, it's going to be uncertain if either count is correct until we break out of the triangle. The resistance of the Weekly Kumo was penetrated and now there is nothing but clear skies until 1120. This is an awkward position for the Bears as 1053 will now act as support.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.


  1. hey bob, both of your short term counts look like good possibilities although the first is more likely. the big problem is the long count. i keep seeing more entrenched bears swaying with the latest,, even the evil speculator has gone away for a sebaticial and i bet he comes back a bull. what do you think the probability is that the correction from 2000 is a giant flat with the 5 waves from oct'07 being the whole c wave

  2. I can see how one may look at it like that, but even though I am not a fundamentalist I see the market going much lower. We just need to kill more bears first.

    One of the weak points of Elliott Wave is that a 5-3-5 correction can appear to be an impulse or a correction. But realistically I don't think we can turn the coming depression around.

    So no I side with Robert Prechters count. I also gave consideration to the rally since March as wave 4 of P1, but I think that idea has been shot down. At least I don't agree with it any longer. I looked at other markets and the 4th and 5th waves are there.

    Rich is looking at the September rally as wave one of five. I tend to agree. We have almost no resistance until 1120 and then 1170. I'm hoping for a pull back over the next few days to about 1040.


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