Friday, November 6, 2009
Looks like the ED was a good call today. Monday should be the litmus test.
The Ichimoku is not bearish just yet but there are times when other methods must be our guide.
MoneySpy has been showing weakness. This indicates that money has been coming out of the market while price continues to gain ground. Goldman Sachs has been a big buyer during the past few days, but there are ways to trade internally, driving prices higher while extracting cash. At the close they were a big seller. I expect they will be selling futures contracts before the open. Come Monday's open they dump everything and walk away with the cash from the futures market. They will loose a small amount from actually shares but remember they have already reduced their exposure by buying and selling in a manipulated fashion that drove prices up.
This why I named my indicator MoneySpy. It's designed to see the cash flow behind the obvious price changes. What I find interesting is that with market manipulation like this the Elliott Wave still works.
In the M60 chart below the yellow line is the Time Series Forecast which has been following close to the Tenkan-sen. Both are positioned directly below the price. Any dip in price would change that status to bearish. MoneySpy tends to change right along with the Time Series Forecast, and so it will not take much to tip the scales in favor of the Bears.
On the M60 chart, the ADX/DMI is still looking bullish, but D+ and D- are heading toward each other. I realize that the ADX is actually gaining strength, but I think it will turn. I don't know exactly what it will take to make D+/D- cross but my guess is 10 to 15 points would do it. MACD is overbought the MA is ready to turn. Stochastics have already turned and crossed.
Another one of my favorite indicators is the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The Awesome Oscillator with a WildersAverage is even better. As shown above we have three red bars, and the Histogram is just about to drop below the MA.
It's always a larger risk to pick a top, but it appears to me that Monday will be a very bad day for the Bulls. I can hardly wait! Of course Daneric may be right too, but either way I'm holding my shorts.
Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.
Posted by Robert Campbell at 17:24