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Friday, January 29, 2010


Forecast Review:
DDF incorrectly forecast a Bullish Day, but
Price traded perfectly within the pivots, bouncing off the S1 pivot.
The downward Andrews Pitchforks held and the upward forecast fork presented at 9:00 PST as a possible new trend was quickly invalidated.

I believe we have a little further to go in order to finish minutette (v). S1 at 1065 and S2 at 1055 appear to be likely targets for Minute [i]. (By the way I use white for sub-minutette rather than Black since my background is now black). On the other hand, sub-minutette c of the triangle could be minutette (iv) and in that case we aren't even close to a bottom.

MoneySpy and Woodies CCI turned Bearish at 9:00 which turned out to be a very good call. I wish I had not been doing other things, and had picked up on that change.

12:30 PST

Here is a possible EW count with a triangle for wave 4.
Both of these forks are still valid.
I think there are several ways to count this wave but they all point to this last segment as a fifth wave.

09:00 PST

If the tide has changed this may be the fork to watch.
The red dot is my target. This intersects 1.618 Fibonacci, Woodie's Pivot and the top tine of the fork.

08:35 PST

All along I've had a difficult time finding the fork with a high degree of certainty since the patern has come down from the high.

Here are three possible forks that I have presented before. With each, the handle follows the turning points. I don't know if Andrews would consider the possibility of several forks working together but I'm looking forward to this being resolved and hope I can learn from this situation.

07:30 PST

The hourly charts:
The Ichimoku remains Bearish, but Price has transcended both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. Now we have support from the M60 Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen at about 1092 the Kumo sits above to offer resistance. The bottom edge of the Kumo is at about 1096 and this edge is weaker than the flat top where solid resistance can be found at 1120.

Woodies CCI turned to a flat trend from a strong downward trend.
MoneySpy is Bullish.

On the Daily Charts MoneySpy and Woodies CCI remain Bearish
Having entered the Daily Kumo we now have support at 1074 and resistance at 1102.

DDF - The daily range is 1088.47 - 1095.93, but DDF is also indicating a Bullish Bias for today's trend. We may have to rely on the Persons Pivots and the Woodies Pivots for the expected upper limits near 1098.

Price has escaped above the pitchfork's top tine. Should the trend continue much further a new upward fork will need to be drawn indicating a change in the short term trend with 1107 to 1120 as my upside target which I base on the previously mentioned areas of resistance.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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