Blog Archive

Monday, May 24, 2010


Market Recap:
Today's Bearish Harami left the Bulls without the confirmation they wanted. They have one more day to redeem their Bullish Reversal coupon. But the hourly just gave the Bears a confirmed Bearish Three Outside Down, and my indicators as well as PPS have confirmed the Bearish move.

The Bearish Harami is a good indication that the market has weakened. A black candle tomorrow would confirm this as a continuation.

Price has fallen to the lower side of the Cyan Fork, and a failure to tag the upper Green handle will further confirm the weakness. As long as the Green fork continues to contain Price the Bears can claim control, but remember Price remains inside the Cyan Fork until 1065. This is an area of trend line support and should considered. I have adjusted my Green Fork slightly so that the handle now touched 1055.9 Low at the open of 5/21.

Persons Pivots have a range of 1062 to 1080. The Bots will most likely react strongly to these levels.

Price is now below the Kijun-sen at 1080. This is currently flat on the hourly, and therefore will offer resistance. A gain in momentum will be indicated if it begins to slope downward. On a Daily basis the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen have already begun to show an increase of momentum.

My expectation for any rally remains limited to the vicinity of 1113.

// end of recap

15:00 EST

On the hourly candle charts we have an unconfirmed Bearish Three Outside Down.
Required confirmation will come with a closes below 1082.
Price is currently below the Cyan Handle.

13:17 EST
SPX is close to forming a Squeeze.

This chart looks like a mess, but Price is at the top of the Inside Linear Regression Channel (LRC) lines. These are the heavy Magenta lines. A break out from here might extend the rally to the thin red lines (Outer LRC). This would work within the Green Pitchfork.

But DDF is Bearish, so the Squeeze may take Price down to the lower Magenta line of the LRC. which would satisfy the Blue Forecast Fork. Breaking the Cyan Handle (dashes) would send this market into a strong downward move to the lower tine in the 1065 to 1070 area.

Currently Price is being held hostage between the Tenkan-sen(1080) and the Kjun-sen (1090). I can't quite say which way it will break, but there is a possible triangle forming, and the Squeeze has potential to start building pressure.

With Price currently halfway between the Green lines a failure to reach the top tine would indicate a very weak market.

PPS has yet to issue an hourly sell but MoneySpy and the Oracle are both looking like a pending Sell signal is imminent. With this in mind I'm leaning toward a break to the downside with continued weakness to follow.

11:00 EST
DDF has a Bearish Bias.

09:40 EST

I'm getting a volatile market warning from the Squeeze Indicator on the /ES.
A jump to the SPX 1113 area may be in the cards today. I'll have the DDF in about an hour.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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