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Thursday, June 24, 2010

Thursday

02:30 Friday

The green fork seen below originates March 09. Clearly the cyan fork has been broken.
I'd be suprised if Price does not shift to the high side of the yellow fork at this point. But breaking the green fork will be significant.


Market recap:

Here is what I said yesterday. You did not get to see this because I gave back what I get from you. Nothing.

"Conclusion is that it either breaks down tomorrow or price is headed to 1100 to 1105 minimum.
DDF may give a clue but it looks like this is going to make or break early in the day.
"


Yep that's right I still wrote my blog, I just didn't publish it. I'm not asking that you throw compliments my way even though I know of no other blog that presents such a clear and accurate analysis complete with expected range and targets.

I'm saying I'd like some involvement. I'd like to hear your view of the market. I'd like to hear about new indicators you like, or some other blogger who's on a roll. How do you think I feel writing day after day with nothing coming back? Heck just tell me about something good on You-Tube.

Maybe I should just get all angry and demand contributions. Kenny is about as obnoxious as any blogger, and from what I can tell he's been as vague and undecided about the market as one can get. Yet he has hundreds in his chat. Go figure.

OK Here's the recap:
The candles are clearly bearish with today's Black Opening Marubozu. This is a strong bearish candle stick.

Hourly:
MoneySpy and the Oracle are bearish,
Hourly Ichimoku is bearish.
PPS is bearish and Price is below the 4/7MA
Price is below the standard deviation envelope.

Daily:
MoneySpy and the Oracle are bearish,
Ichimoku has a Bullish cross, but price is still below the MA's and the Kumo.
PPS is Bearish - and Price is below the 4/7MA
Price is back below the 200MA and the 255MA
Price is below the standard deviation envelope.
Tomorrow's center Persons Pivot is above at 1079
We are even below the weekly Pivot which is actually a bullish thing.

In conclusion, crossing the handle of the Green Fork is possible but it seems unlikely that Price will rally past the 255MA at 1085. All indications are that the trend will remain down.

// ___________________________________________ //


15:30
I want to show you how the DDF has performed, and point out the 14:30 rule. I get that many who come to my Blog don't take a serious interest and look at the charts for a few minutes and leave. That disappoints me but maybe if I explain the DDF, the importance may become clear.

Clayburg is a really smart trader, and he noticed a few simple things about the markets.

1. The daily range is determined within the first hour or so of trading
2. The range is predicable until about 14:30 ET.
3. A strong signal can be determined by where the DDF line sits relative to the range.

Looking at the chart directly below I'd like to point out the accuracy of the predicted range and how at 14:30 the range is often broken. Notice how I've created a shading difference for the current day which ends at 14:30. That's when Clayburg takes his money and goes home after his 4 hour day of trading the range.

I think this is a pretty nice indicator because between the hours of 10:30 and 14:30 you can trade with a 75% accuracy.

On a different note I'd like to point out the pale green fork that has provided the turbulence today. This fork originated back in early February. The accuracy never stops to amaze me. I love the forks! It's probably no coincidence but this is also the level of 255MA.

As you can see I've draw a couple of optional forks. The larger picture suggests that the markets decline has a possibility of accelerating to the downside. This probably fits a P3 wave count too, but that aside the larger fork at play is very wide and Price remains close to the top of that fork.

The Daily Squeeze indicator has been showing some red, and I'm not sure that the pressure has been released just yet. In fact it may be building.

Please allow me to illustrate that point.

13:55
The yellow fork can be eliminated. Resistance from the Kumo and Tenkan-sen should hold this advance at 1087. Breaking the handle will indicate the top green tine as the target in the area of 1097 to 1005.


12:07
This next hour will let us know which fork will dominate the trend.
A candle with a long bottom shadow indicates Price has found temporary support at the 2/5 fork. I think it can safely be called a Hammer even though it has a slight top shadow. This pattern is close to a Bullish Dragonfly Doji Pattern.

The white candle that is apparently developing will be confirmation. The hammer is black or red in my case so it presents a weaker case.


11:30

10:30 ET

Hourly indicators are bearish

DDF has a bearish bias
Clear break of the cyan fork.
Support is currently coming from the 2/5/10 fork at 1076.
Price is below the hourly Kumo

There are two possible new forks forming.

The red fork may not become a trend.
It shows support and lines of influence.

By repositioning the Cyan fork it shows further support. Once again these last two charts are not necessarily showing forks with actual trend, but instead lines of support and resistance due to a proportionate relationship.




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling contracts, equities or currency.

4 comments:

  1. Hi Bob..

    I'm new to charts and am lost when I look at yours. A simple explanation under every chart would be great

    I think it would be great if you could give a SPX target number when you talk about forks (like say if it breaks below xxx on the SPX, then it means bearish or bullish etc.)

    ReplyDelete
  2. I understand how coming here without knowledge of Andrews Pitchforks, Ichimoku, Clayburgs Directional Day Filter, Fibonacci Ratios, PPS, Pivots, Candle Sticks and Standard Deviation might be a bit daunting. I've got a few helpful links near the bottom of the page that will help. It would of course be unrealistic for me to fully explain and teach about these methods everyday but I try to pass on a little about the finer details of some of these tools once in a while.

    Basically I can't always tell you an SPX number because my analysis is fluid. For example the Kumo which means Cloud in Japanese changes shape. Depending on when Price encounters the Kumo or the Andrews Pitchfork the price will change. My goal is to help you draw the same charts on your computer.

    Another goal is to share my insight into which factors will play into each other, and others that will probably fall to influence the market.

    If your software allows you to draw Andrews Pitchforks I would suggest experimenting and finding the relationship Price has to the center line (the Handle) and the way the outside lines (the Tines) line up with the peaks. Here is a link to a site where you will find more information. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/andrewspitchfork.asp

    ReplyDelete
  3. Here's another site you may find helpful for the DDF.

    http://www.clayburg.com/jfc_directional_day_filter_indic.htm

    ReplyDelete
  4. Excellent stuff here, appreciate your work

    ReplyDelete

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