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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Tuesday

Market recap:

You may recall that after the close on Friday I said "With the formation of a Bearish Harami I'm feeling more confident that the Green Downward Fork will prevail, and expect the market to deliver another blow to the Bulls on Tuesday." The Bears delivered that blow today!

Today's Black Candle Stick confirmed the reversal pattern from Friday's Bearish Harami. The Bears got the reversal they were waiting for with the downward gap at the open, but the day left us wondering if it was going to take off.

The DDF failed to forecast today's Bearish Bias, but throughout the day Price was contained precisely within it's boundaries until the last twenty minutes which brought the Price down to the Cyan forks lower tine as I had predicted earlier in the morning.

So where to from here? I would expect Price to rebound off the Cyan fork, and find it's way to the Green fork again. If that happens we can only wait, and see if the Green fork holds one more time. If Price should break through the upper tine my target will be 1096 to 1105. But based on the Ichimoku, and the trajectory of the Cyan fork prices as high as 1145 to 1150 with some resistance near 1126 could occur. Generally price would have bounced abruptly off the tine not crawl along it as it has done for several days now, so I do have my concerns.

But the Bearish scenario does have it's strengths too. The 60 minute Kumo will offer strong resistance at 1095 and currently the bottom of the Kumo is soft. The Daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are also flat at 1096 so resistance in the area is very strong.

The Hourly Kagi chart is in a down trend. The Daily Kagi chart will still require a break below 1040 which is the obvious area for the Bears to conquer.

Currently the Daily Candle Sticks have us short. The last hour's candle on the SPX closed with a Black Closing Marubozu. While this is not a strong signal it does lean towards a Bearish open tomorrow. Watch the overnight market to glean any further insight and keep an eye on the Pivots. 1053 is the Persons Support Pivot.

Good Luck!









1600EST
Please allow me to quote myself.

"I've drawn a Yellow Fork within all the other forks as a guide to the lower Cyan Tine where I expect Price to find support once again near 1070. As you can see this is the area where the Kumo and the Persons Pivots also show support."


I'll be back later with a market recap but I've gotta run.


13:40 EST
The indicators have gone Bullish
Still within boundaries.


13:00 EST

Here is what my indicators look like at 1300 EST
All day the $ADVN/$DECN have been 1:2

More sellers than buyers


11:45 EST
Here's an update to the DDF. Price has remained within the DDF boundaries, and is flirting with the top tine of the Green Fork.
Price is respecting the Woodies Pivot's.



With price within the Hourly Kumo it will tend to float. Overhead resistance can be seen at 1094.72 which coincides with the Persons Pivot for tomorrow.

I've drawn a Yellow Fork within all the other forks as a guide to the lower Cyan Tine where I expect Price to find support once again near 1070. As you can see this is the area where the Kumo and the Persons Pivots also show support.

The Cyan fork was drawn on May 27 as a forecast fork.


10:30 EST






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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