Wednesday, June 30, 2010
I may not be able to spend time on this blog during the market hours for a while.
I wish I could have been here today, but I've got a remodel going, and it's simply too hot to work in the afternoon. Besides all my sub contractors start work early in the morning before the market even opens over here on the west coast.
Today's Black Candle is exactly what one would expect after a Black Opening Marubozu. It confirms the bearish trend. Today began following the upward forks I drew, but it became obvious these forks were merely lines of temporary influence. I hope you recognized this when price sharply broke the bottom tine.
The upper span of the Weekly Kumo has now been breached.
The confluence of opposing lines of influence (support and resistance) continues to hold the market in war over an important price level that many traders have failed to recognize.
The green fork has allowed Price to ambiguously run back and forth over the handle. In the chart below I've drawn a cyan fork that seems to fit better. Clearly the lines of the green fork have influenced Price but it does not look right. I've also placed a red oval at 1014, as a possible target Price has drifted quite a way, and is on the handle of the 1219.80 4/26/10 fork. It's time for a correction, but I don't see that correction going above 1060. It should remain within the Cyan fork.
The indicators are still bearish on both the hourly and the daily so I'm thinking 1014 may work out as a target. Further support for this theory comes from Smoothy which is currently alerting me to a "stall" on the daily and an "acceleration" on the hourly.
Smoothy is something I wrote a few days ago. It has an ability to sense areas where the trend will stall before there is any indication from price. It's a leading indicator, and in my back testing I've found that it has a good record of being right.
The Ichimoku is still bearish of course, and the Daily Tenkan-sen has finally met the Kijun-sen. It's certain to create a bearish cross tomorrow or the next day.
I'm out of here, but I'll leave you with one more possible fork. Grenn is gone. Cyan is in.
I'm back for a few minutes. Had to check on the market. My bet is on Yellow
Posted by Robert Campbell at 07:23