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Thursday, April 28, 2011


16:30 ET
This is a follow up after the markets close.

Today the market topped at 1358.50 just 1/2 handle above my predicted target. This was done on a very high 5 minute volume when the short stops were hit. The market then retested the new support at 1356.25 and failed to hold.  Not an especially bullish sign.

We will have to watch the market to see if it can find the strength to climb back over the 1358.5 level, but this has a very bearish look to it.

I have placed a small red dot near 1362.50 as an ideal target and top.  From here on it may get a bit difficult to pin that point down, because of the radical behavior the market may tend to demonstrate in it's last moments of glory.    I'm watching for an explosive burnout (today may have been that burnout) or new highs on very low volume.

As I stated earlier today a test of the 1350 area and the bottom tine of the small blue fork should be expected.  If this fork fails, it could very well indicate the top is in, but there are larger forks to challenge and until those fail it is not over.

Having come into my target area I established near the end on 2010; I expect we are very close to finding the high for the 2011. The look appears to require just a little further. I've drawn a purple rectangle in the area I believe may be reached.

I'm getting that we may fall back to about 1350 today to test the lower tine of the small blue fork. Last night a high of 1356.25 established a new resistance line. Should that line be broken higher prices are sure to follow. Look for that and then a back test to establish 1356.25 as the new support.

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