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Thursday, June 23, 2011



Here's the bottom line right at the top.
I'm looking for a pull back to 1269 - 1270 then an advance to 1295-1300 before taking the plunge. 

The e-mini climbed slightly above my high range of 1275 and is now in a pocket of consolidation.  I expect it will range 1275 to 1282.5 over night.    Anything below 1269 will be bearish as this would follow my down fork and return us to the 1257-1270 range.

I hope you noticed that I called the bottom, the sticky point and missed the peak by only a few handles today.

We had strong volume on both the initial down move and the finishing up move.  It could be a sign strength building into a further move up, but my guess is it was a burn off as the short stops got hit.   But I still expect to see the market test the area near 1295-1300 before it finally breaks hard below the 200 DMA .

These are my settings for a VIX alert. It's not clear which way it will break, but I'm ready for it either way.
The graph at the bottom is Adv/Dec 


Another index to watch is the BKX. A move above 47.00 will help confirm today's low. A break below 46.29 would lead to further selling.

Currently holding below 76.25 on the Dollar with a small inside bar. This could be the short term top. If so the S&P will hold here at the 200 DMA. AD line continues to be biased to the down side, but volume has returned to normal and I expect the 200 to hold for a while.

This is the tipping point in these markets. Resistance sits at 1275 with a sticky point near 1269
Watch the internals for a hint as to what the next move will be. There is currently a little bit of green showing on the up down volume chart

Looks like a short term bottom at 1258.5. The gap may be filled before further selling can take place.

Dollar at key resistance. E-mini at 200 DMA next support 1257. AD at -2100
Relative volume is very high.

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