Blog Archive

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Sunday

I suppose I should post at least once a week, but nothing has changed since my previous post on the 13th.

It appears to me that the market needs to draw a topping shadow, and reverse hard before the Bulls take profit.  The Bears need to take it below the 50 DMA.  Until saturation the market will continue to bleed upward. 1330 is a magnet at this point.

Volume has slowly declined for months, but price continues to hover near the top tines of the major forks, and trend lines off the peaks, and the daily bars are getting smaller, so it appears there is a top close at hand.

The last significant low was about 1273 and  there is support near 1292. The 20 DMA may intersect with the market in that area near 1292 which was my previous upward target, if that fails, the 50 will still be there near 1250 and the bottom tine of the fork from early August. 

There are other important levels near 1300, but I'm looking at the 1250 area and the 50 DMA as the critical level.  Once below that I feel the market will gain downward momentum, and it may even drop through the 1218 support with out too much hesitation.

So the DMA's  are the levels of interest and they all line up well with the forks.  It's difficult to say exactly where the market will run out of steam, but once the move toward center begins I believe it will take our breath away.


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