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Friday, May 4, 2012


Price has broken the bottom of the Red Fork.  Having been tested several times before makes it less likely to recover.

The Red Fork has been my major topic of discussion since December or maybe even November of 2011.  It is somewhat obscured by the Blue Fork as it fits inside the top portion of the Blue Fork. (the bottom of the Red Fork is the handle of the Blue Fork).  For you Fork aficionados you might wish look into Schiff Forks.  

I believe the odds are in favor of hitting the lower tine of the Blue Fork, and when 1348.50 is breached the odds increase.  1348.50 is a strong support level.

The highest volume days created an important range.  The Volume Profile shows the Resistance and Supports.  Once 1350 is breached the next support will be near 1290.   Going back to November you may recall the emphasis I placed on that level.   This will be the breaking point where all the long stops will be hit.  1244 will then provide some support for the Bulls, but don't hang on to that bounce for too long, because 950 will be right around the corner.  Oh how I remember those levels...  These were targets broken one by one.  I actually remember what I was doing when we hit 950.

From an Elliott Wave point of view, this decent is less than convincing, but the waves are often not clear while they are forming.  If this is the "big one", then chances are that the waves are still too minute to reveal the devastation ahead.   On the other hand Volume has not revealed a climax and 1425 or higher may still be the blow off point to this insane Bull run.

I have long wished that this Blog could develop into a place where analysis would be discussed.   But that day has probably passed.  I have little interest in trading and may not continue too  post here on a regular basis.  I'm now farming and raising fish and loving it!

But I hope I have passed on the tools I use .  It has been a wild ride.  For quite awhile I was convinced by my love of math that I could eventually write the perfect expression.   But I came back around to the roots.   It's all about previous price interest and looking for the price patterns.   Keep it simple.

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