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Thursday, April 18, 2013


For now price appears to be following the lower half of this fork.  At some point it should transition to the upper half.
1530 support has continued to hold, but the long anticipated collapse seems to be in motion.  The Bulls have pulled us back from disaster many times, so it's difficult to believe they will not do it one more time, but the end of their run seems near at hand.

My line in the sand is 1524 where I believe the top of wave 1 peaks.  Any thing lower satisfies all the criteria for a downward continuation.  The trend line from the 2009 low intersects the area near 1440.  1440 should temporarily provide a great deal of support.

The Volume Profile indicates that 1470 will also offer strong support and strong resistance near 1570.   From now on I believe the Volume Profile will be one of our best tools for catching turning points in a rapidly falling market.
I consider my AD vs Price a leading indicator.  It compares accumulated ratio of change between advance-declining issues with price.  Overall it has shown a negative divergence since April 2012 and recently fell below zero even while price continued to raise.

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