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Sunday, September 29, 2013


The green fork and the 20 DMA have given way.   With price currently 4 handles below the 50DMA I am looking for support at the bottom of the Blue fork near 1668.  

@PermaBear  - Thank you for the comment you left on the previous post . 

I tend to lean towards a devastating collapse.  But my analysis simply looks at the forks and volume profiles for support and resistance levels.  The long term chart above shows a large yellow channel, a red upward trend line, a blue upward fork, a green upward fork which has just given way and finally a narrow downward fork.  With everything pointing up it's not possible to say the trend has changed.

But since we are coming off the top of the channel it appears that we may make out way to the bottom of that channel again.   Each of the forks and the red trend line from October 2011 will present support.  If these supports are broken then I believe we can target the bottom of the yellow channel.  Breaking out of the Yellow channel from 2009 would be very bad, but we are over due for the day of reckoning.

I have used the Elliott Wave since around 1978, but no longer put all my faith in it.  If the wave theories are correct we are coming into the last few waves near the top, but who knows; with Elliott Wave you never know if you are looking at the whole wave or just a portion of it.

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