Durring the past few weeks I have presented a Diagonal or Triangle. Anyone looking at the patterns would certainly have noticed some kind of a Wedge. I labeled it as a 5,3,5,3,5.
Of all the wedge patterns, either Triangle or Diagonal, the Leading Diagonal is the only pattern with that sequence, and since it quacked like a duck, I called it a Leading Diagonal, but other astute Elliottians let me know that I should rethink that conclusion.
Of all the wedge patterns, either Triangle or Diagonal, the Leading Diagonal is the only pattern with that sequence, and since it quacked like a duck, I called it a Leading Diagonal, but other astute Elliottians let me know that I should rethink that conclusion.
That lead me to studying Diagonals and Triangles. Until now I did not see much difference. To be honest I now feel embarrassed about that, but I believe others may also share that confusion. So here is a very basic list of rules regarding Triangles and Diagonals. Please feel free to comment.
Triangles all have a (3,3,3,3,3) count, and take these four forms:
AT - Ascending Triangles
DT - Descending Triangles
CT - Contracting Triangles
ET - Expanding Triangles
Diagonals take only two forms:
LD - Leading Diagonal - (5,3,5,3,5)
ED - Ending Diagonal - (3,3,3,3,3)
Please notice that all but the Leading Diagonal have a (3,3,3,3,3) count. It is the only wedge that has a (5,3,5,3,5) count.Triangles are labeled A,B,C,D,E They only occur as:
1. Wave B of a Zig Zag,
2. Never as wave 1,2,3 or 5
3. Wave Y, Z, and the final wave X of a Double or Triple Zig Zag
4. Wave E of a Triangle,
5. Any wave 4
Diagonals are labeled 1,2,3,4,5.
Ending Diagonals occur in waves 5 and C, and are always the terminal wave.
(Not internal to a Zig Zag)
Leading Diagonals only occur in waves 1 and A.
So here's the problem with the Leading Diagonal I presented.
Unless this is a wave 1 or wave A it can't be a Leading Diagonal.
But the Wedge clearly appears to begin with a (5,3,5,3,-) count so it can't be an Ending Diagonal either. That would require a (3,3,3,3,3) count. So neither a Diagonal nor a Triangle will work. It's just a coincidence that the trend lines form the appearance of a Wedge.
So the W,X,Y,X,Z scenario appears to be the most likely count I've seen. Below is a wide view of SPY.
So that leaves us in wave of Z which I expect to finish near 1108 on Tuesday.Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.
Just what if...
ReplyDeleteWhat if we have been counting the supercycle count wrong and the 2000 peak was an extended 5th wave, then the wave down to 2003 was wave primary A, primary B was the 2007 peak (because with 5th wave extensions wave B can exceed wave 5's peak. That would mean the wave down to the March lows was wave C of the supercycle 4th wave. It would complete a flat for supercycle wave 4. Then this wedge from the March lows would be a leading diagonal of the final 5th wave of the supercycle. What if that is why it looks like it's a leading diagonal....because it IS one? (I hope not because I am short, and planning to get more short soon.) But could this be a possibility?
concise reference for triangles and diagonals.
ReplyDeleteThank you
Thanks Piazzi, I hope I got everything right.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteI believe Prechter has it right, but anything is possible. But you obviously see my point. If this is an LD we are going to the moon! Oh we just did that. Slammed to spacecraft right into it.
Hi Bob, thanks for sending methis link, was very helpful.
ReplyDeleteSo keeping in mind that triangles are never wave 2's, FTSE is more likely to be at the "c" of the "Z" of a triple zigzag WxYxxZ I had on my video labeled as the Red Count.
Does this seem to reflect your own personal view on other indexes? Final leg up and then another bearish wave below march lows?