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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Thursday

23:50 PST

Below is the EUR/USD. It appears that the Yellow Fork is failing. My inclination is that the Magenta fork will hold, and lower prices will come soon. Of course the purpose of the forks is to indicate when a break out begins so beware. We have been on a ride with this fork since 1.5143 on the 3d of December 2009.

I'd like to post an SPX - EW chart with an intelligent count, but once again the Elliott Wave has proven itself to be the best 20/20 hindsight indicator ever sold. Really - have you every seen a more perfect example of and Elliott Wave get shot down!

I have no idea how I used to make money with it. My feelings are that it may have lost it's edge, or I was just one lucky trader. I'm pissed off at the Elliott Wave. Where was it that Prechter said 200% short? I think it was around 1070. I can't believe I've put Prechter and the Elliott Wave Theory on a pedestal since the 1980's. I even stuck with him through the 2000's What a waste!

I'll trust a fork before a wave count any day. I'm not saying it's totally worthless, but other systems are proving more reliable, and I'm thinking I need to move it back to a supporting indicator, rather than a reliable forecasting indicator.

Look at Kenny's sight for an EW count with plenty of support. Then look at Rich's sight for several other counts. With so many perfectly believable counts; odds are the EW will be right again, and if not I'm sure someone will figure it out later. We will see perfectly believable charts with counts that fit the 5-3-5-3-5 wave pattern. It's a lot like looking at clouds in the sky and making shapes look like animals.

I apologize in advance, because EW is so ingrained in my thought process that I am likely to fall back, and find comfort in it's illusion from time to time. After all it is my addiction. Like an addict I hate it but I keep coming back to my pusher.







08:00 PST




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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