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Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Market recap:

Candle sticks are one of my favorite tools. Back on 7/7 when we had a White Opening Marubozu I remarked "Today's White Marubozu is a strong Bullish candle. I don't think we really need to wait for confirmation of a reversal. The market was pretty clear today." But technically there was no bearish pattern so the candles have us short. Today produced another White Opening Marubozu, but this time I'm thinking a bearish reversal is close at hand. Notice that Price has bumped up against the bottom of the hourly Kumo. The forks are showing symmetry and 1105.48 is 78.6% of the last decline from 1131.23 to 1010.91. We peaked today just six points short at 1099.46.

The indicators I use have yet to issue sell signals, but the are warning of an impending top. I'm quite certain 1070 will soon present resistance, but we will have to wait and see how things look when we get there. I'm thinking Price may bounce, and create one more peak in the 1090 - 1105 area. If price breaks the 1070 area we may finally be on our way down.

There is little doubt in my mind that much lower prices lay ahead. It's just a matter to time. Even though I said last Friday that 1090 was a possible target I admit I was not 100% bullish during this recent ascent until the cyan fork was violated.

My job has taken me away from the market, but even so, I don't think I would have called it any different. I'm not sure if the Elliottians were able to call this one either. It's been a day by day battle between the Bulls and the Bears with a lot of Dojis and Spinning Tops along the way which says the market really didn't know either.

Last Friday the Weekly Persons Pivot was establish for this week at 1097.96. We have met that level and should expect Price to fall away from it. Here is the DDF chart from this morning. The white line is the Weekly Persons Pivot. Notice the DDF limits as well.

A larger picture of proportions

13:20 ET
It would appear the triangle is going to fail. I've got to leave, but here's a preliminary fork to take us to the next skirmish near 1070.

There is a possible triangle forming. If so 1103 to 1107

11:15 ET
Directional Day Filter
Fibonacci Ratios. 1010.91 to 1032.92 produce this chart. where 1093.27 becomes a target near the Daily Kumo. This is also very close to a 0.382 retrace of the 1010.91 to 1219.80 decline.1090.71.

I expect a pull back from here to 1070 where another skirmish will take place.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling contracts, equities or currency.

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