Basically the mean value is indicated by the highlighted horizontal bar. This is the price where most of the trading has happened. The shaded area defaults to 70% and shows where 70% of the trading has occurred.
Knowing this we can determine if Price is fair or outside the fair range. Time is represented by the colored numbers. Starting with magenta 0-9 then cyan 0-9 ect.
Currently Price is above the mean value so far established during the past two hours. and in theory, has a good chance of returning to the 1300 area.
I drew a line at 1080 to show the area where there has been a very large amount of trading. This will be a level of support if the market begins to reverse it's Bullish trend.
Here's a monthly chart with the 70% range shown by year. It's easy to see where the majority long term trading has occurred.
15:00 ET
I'm seeing the first sign of weakness. Breaking the triangle will be the next and falling below the 20 EMA will be significant. Slipping below the -1 sigma currently at 1308.6 could set the ball in motion. The lowest tine of the March 2009 fork currently sits near 1208 and is rising at about 2 handles per day. Until this tine is broke the major trend remains upward, but my previous experience with Elliott Wave has me thinking a reversal may be close at hand.
However I would have expected more of a blow off, and maybe even a Squeeze signal which do not seem to be happening. So I'm just saying this is a market to watch closely.
The chart shows the Price bars colored by TheValarInArda which is based on Volume. Smoothy is based on Price. The threshold for a bearish signal from Smoothy is currently about 1312. The Mesa is an experiment in phase angles. It has yet to indicate a turn.
11:45 ET
Below are two indicators I trust. Area51 is a collaborative effort which I'm not at liberty is discuss, but it has proven to be a leading indicator with valuable information. When the lines splay apart the move is weak. When the lines gather closely the move is strong.
The other indicator is TheMarketsTell. Unlike Area51 this is based on volume. Therefore the pair compliment each other very well.
10:45 ET
Currently up against the +3 sigma. No indications of a Squeeze.
The Closing Pivots on the SPX show Price above the R2 with R3 at 1326. DDF is Bullish with a DDF top pivot of 1320.74. There is still no indication of weakness.
Volume remains unimpressive.
High in the channel, long in the tooth, and at the top of an apex, but still no indication of a reversal.
I feel this could change quickly.
Price is at the Daily R1 VWAP Pivot 1314.94
10:05 ET
No comments:
Post a Comment