I may have been to quick to dismiss that wedge. The last leg often over shoots the trend line,and I'm not confident about about direction right now. It appears that the 50 day MA will continue to be a player, but the 20 MA could come back into play if it breaks the 50. I'm just watching till the market either breaks the 50MA or yesterdays low.
Today's spike to the 50 MA during the last hour certainly looks like a peak due to the long shadow and higher volume. How far that reversal will go is the question. 1315 looks like a likely landing point for that pull back, but where it goes over the next couple days is still not clear because we are still consolidating.
The fork from 2009 is so large at this point that near term accuracy has been lost.
I'm just rambling as i put my thoughts on paper. Basically it's a wait and see. do we break the 50 MA or the trend line of the wedge?
I'm also watching the 100 Day MA. But what I expect is a bounce off 1315 tonight.
I'm showing two possible forks. Cyan and Red. The ovals show approximate targets if the Cyan fork works out.
The 50MA seems to be playing an important role.