Blog Archive

Monday, July 11, 2011

Monday

16:45
I had a moment of doubt, but then the market put in one more even longer bottom tail and headed back over the previous high.

I've been getting excited about this market again because we are once again at the tipping point.
This VIX chart is interesting.  Look at how the 19.06 level is being tested

Over night may prove to create an interesting open, but I think the E-Mini will continue to consolidate between 1310 and 1322.  Draw your trend lines and forks and watch the internals tomorrow! 

So here's the results.  A nice bounce off the 50 DMA and the Fork. 
Probably not a major bottom, but I wanted to show this while it was unfolding. (See my earlier posts at 15:29 and 15:53) 
While the momentum may carry the market slightly lower to about 1302 I feel we are about to start one more multi-day move up from here.  It's may be the last move up for a while, but there is now potential for a retest of 1370, depending on how the market acts near 1327.

The Dollar failed to break the 76.59 level and appears to be up against heavy resistance.  Keep an eye on this one.  I believe the S&P will follow inverse to any breakout, but that may not happen just yet.

The Euro has broken important support and it now resting on a trend line from July 2008. But more important is the new fork I have drawn here.  The old fork is shown in a very dark green.


15:53
Back test failed to hold and we did not break to a higher high.  Ticks have turn down .  It's still too early to tell but  I may be wrong this time.
15:39
Here's the back test
I'll be back with the results a the close
15:29
Here's the breakout to the upside.  Watch this bar and the ticks.  This Bar just broke the downside trend line on higher volume and improved TICK.  This will probably end with a small wick at the top and a long tail at the bottom.  So coming into the close we will begin to work out way higher off the 50 DMA



It feels like a recipe is all coming together.
I have 76.00 set as a critical level for a Dollar break out
The EUR/USD is testing support at 1.4030
The E-Mini is testing the 50 DMA at 1313 and the Fork from 6/16.


Once again the markets are approaching the break level.


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