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Friday, December 23, 2011


The market has met the 200 DMA and trend line from July 2011. Breaking slightly into the lower half of this green fork. Due to the markets ability to stay above the center of this fork over night I have reevaluated the expected trading range I mentioned yesterday.

The lower tine of this fork should provide support near 1240 if the markets sell off today, but currently the pattern does not appear to have peaked.

If 1240 is hit today I'd look for a symmetrical pattern to balance the fork, and I would expect the the markets to hold up until the begining of the new year. As previously mentioned 1300 area is a likely target. This is a Fibonacci level, and it jives with the trend line from 1373.50 peak in May 2011.

This green fork requires symmetry
Below is an alternative positioning of the green fork showing a symmetric pattern which could peak near 1268.
In any case 1240 should offer support, but this has become a critical level for the Bulls to hold.

1200 remains the breaking level at which a 100 handle flash crash would most likely occur.

Here are some things I'm observing .  FAS and FAZ have not reacted to this mornings Bullish trend.
The one minute TICK chart is making lower lows even thought it has remained above zero for the best part of the day.
The Adv/Dec is uninspired at about 2:1 and price just did a touch and go off the R2 pivot.

None of this looks especially good for a bullish close, but I'm not seeing any topping shadows either.

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