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Friday, July 20, 2012


Important Support at 1361. 
People often tell me they don't understand my charts.  I get confused by that because it's as easy as driving between the lines.  If the bus goes off the road it's probably found a different road.

It's not as if I can always say with certainty what the market will do. 
It's more like I can say what the market will do if certain things happen.

There are always intermediate targets where the traders make decisions, and send the prices further or reverse the trend. 
Picking those target points is what I do.
Sometimes it's clear what the decision will be, but more often a game of reading the signs and predicting the limits.  I base those signals on Volume Profile, Trendlines, Channels, Wave counts, and of course Andrews Pitchforks.

Today the green fork was broken as I predicted, and as I predicted there is support at the center (Handle) of the upward blue fork.  The market bottomed today at 1357 just four handles lower than I said we should expect to find support. 
The red downward fork is looking like the new trend, but the blue upward fork would look better if it finished filling the lower half. So it's likely to test the top tine of the red fork again, and maybe push it just a little bit wider.  If this happens it will only tend to confirm the validity of the red fork.

1409 is looking less likely, but I'll keep that number out there till we get a confirmation of  a trend change.  Where do you think that is?  I'll give you a hint... It's near a long DMA

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