Leading Diagonal

My target for (wave v) of this Leading diagonal is 1108 on October 14th.

Tenkan-Sen - Red Line
Kijun-sen - Blue Line
Chikou (Yellow Line)

Notice the way the price was rejected by the Flat Top of the Kumo. The Kumo did offer resistance along its edge but eventually failed, breaking though the Kumo at the sloping area which offers less resistance/support.

The Kumo is becoming wider, and it will attract the price towards it as the price moves further away.. The thicker the Kumo the higher the attraction.

The Chikou is above the the price which is a Bullish, but the Chikou has quite a distance to the Price Line below it. This is creating a small amout of downward pressure and adds more to the Bearish argument than the Bullish influence I just mentioned.

Overall I'd say this chart is giving a buy signal as the Tenkan-Sen / Kijun-sen cross, and the position relative to the Kumo are the most powerful of all the indicators.

So having said all that I do want to mention that Alexander at AMBG Trading is short. His secret method has been right on for some time now. Since I'm caught in a short position I hope he is right! He is looking for a major break to the downside.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

$VIX:$VXV

Kenny posted a chart this morning that looked interesting. I could not see any particular coordination between Price and the $VIX:$VXV so I Googled it and found that it is a popular chart.

Here are the basics.
Buy the market when the ratio crosses above 1.08, and exit at ratio=1.02;

Sell the market when the ratio crosses below 0.95, and exit at ratio=0.92, or after 9 days, whichever is sooner.

These limits can be adjusted. A back test in 2008 using 102 and 0.94 resulted in a 74% win ratio.

So according to this chart we got a sell signal this morning.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Standard Notation

I too have decided to follow the the Notation Standard proposed by Kenny and Daneric
The advantage to using a standard is that we can all consult various sites with less confusion.

The EWI notation is good, but it is too difficult for many of us to place characters inside of circles.

Two Bulls and a Bear

The Ichimoku is giving notice but it has not gone Bullish. The price may follow the bottom of the Kumo down tomorrow, but if it breaks through it would be a Bullish signal.




Above is something Pedram shared with me and let me post on my Blog It's a Bullish count.




This is the 5-3-5-3-5 Leading Diagonal that I have mentioned before. This has a lot of potential to go to over 1100. I saw this count too, but Tony posted it first so I'll give him the credit.


Above is the only Bearish chart I have. I'm not sure if this finer notation agrees with Kenny, but I saw the concept this morning on his Blog.






Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Kenny Wins!

Update 08:10
I have decided to switch my notation and use the standard that Danerice and Kenny use.



Thanks to Kenny, who must be up before dawn, we have a new count.

I've include the Leading Diagonal that Tony Caldaro posted some time ago as the ALT-Count

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Charts

Yesterday I presented the Ichimoku 60 minute chart and the Daily chart. Today I'm showing the 30 minute chart as this correction is getting very close to the bottom of (wave 1), and I feel that a more immediate chart is required at this point.

The bottom of the M30 Kumo appears to be holding the Price for now. However if it does break through the top of the Kumo should provide even more restistance. Hopefully it will not overlap.
If my EW count is correct it should be down on Tuesday.


The above chart is the Failed Fifth wave count. The chart below is my preferred count which shifts the bottom of (wave 1) to the left, and counts that awkward set of waves as a 3-3-5 correction for (wave ii)



Ok just in case you are feeling like the Bulls may take control.... Here are some charts I was looking at today. There is nothing Bullish going on around here.

This chart is loaded with information but the important thing to notice is the Price by Volume which shows the high level of support and resistance in our current price level and the 50MA which we just bounced off of.


This is the Awesome Elliott Wave Oscillator. It shows bearish divergence

Bullish percent is still at lofty levels and falling with confermation from the MACD.

And finally the percent of stocks above their 50 MA is continuing to show divergence and dropping quickly.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Updated 9:30I want to thank Pedram for finding a error in my chart. He pointed out that I had made (wave A) a five count and ended (wave C) below the top of (wave A). Had to ponder this dilemma for quite a while and then saw almost the same count on Kenny's site. The difference is where (wave 1) ends.

This may turn out to be a running post today with several updates.
This morning had a small surprise but it looks like we are still on track for wave 5.





Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Three Scenarios

Above is a 60 minute Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. Below is a Daily chart showing resistance at 1000.44 and 953.54. The flat bottom on the Kumo will offer more resistance at 953.54 than the top of the Kumo.

The Chikou is creating a level of resistance/support as I mentioned on the chart, but I also want to add that the Chikou has traveled away from the price and this increases the attraction back to the price level 26 periods ago.

In the chart below the Chikou is at the same level as the price. So a short term attraction is present and strong, but the long term influence of the Chikou is null.


The chart above shows a leading Diagonal. If 1041.17 is breached this count will have merit. If the market does not turn very close to the bottom trend line this scenario can be dismissed.


I saw this failed fifth wave scenario (above) at Elliott Wave Lives On. I like it because I agree with Tony who pointed out that a fifth wave failure would be a fitting end to P2.

This last chart seems to be the popular count. We will have to keep an eye on the count in order to determine which of the scenarios takes form.

In any case the highlighted area will be strategic.

I've also been giving thought to Pedrams post and his concern and came up with this Alt count.
Like like that this count is simple and the Fibonacci target is 1001, which fits with the Ichimoku.




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Plan B

I've been looking at Tony Caldero's site today, and I think he has it right. A failed fifth! Like he said, it's fitting for P2 to end with a failed fifth. I was hoping for an ED but this works for me.

We will see, but I with this scenario the Fibonacci Extension works out to 1002.68
It's probably six of one and half a dozen of the other, because the 1025-1040 range stands as the retracement range. But I like Tony's failed fifth.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Time Value of FAZ

I wanted to know how much value FAZ had lost since the last time we were at 1025.
I was surprised to see only a fifty cent loss after the SPX had traveled up fifty points to 1080 and down again over the past 17 trading days.

I don't know if it would always work out this way.
I seem to recall loosing money before when I called the market right, but held FAZ too long.


Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Saturday Update

The Ichimoku and the Volume by Price is indicating nearby support at about 1005
Chaikin Money Flow, Stochastics, and Williams A/D are showing an oversold condition.
The EW count is looking for one more small wave five down.
Fibonacci Ratios indicate a bottom near 1019
Pivot Point Support 1 is at 1019.91



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

A Beautiful Setup

What a beautiful setup today. We came out of the triangle and right into another. My Fibonacci target is 1020 which coincidentally is also the bottom of the wave three.

I then expect a bounce back to 1025 on wave four. If we don't overlap 1018 I would advise caution on shorting that wave four bounce as 1018 needs to be taken out before we are safe from this being the fourth wave of a Leading Diagonal.

By the way I stand corrected. I've been referring to it as an Ending Diagonal which would have had a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern, where as this has a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.




Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

A good short

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

A while back I stated that the flat topped Weekly Kumo would hold the market, and then provide a floor if Price should rise above it. SPX is now back below the the Weekly Kumo and the Price is right on the Tenkan-sen. The Tenkan-sen may offer a small amount of support, but the Kumo at 1053 will once again offer resistance if we should approach it. The nature of the Kumo is to attract the price back to it, and now that we are inside the Kumo price is free to float. If the price drops below the Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen will be next to offer support.

The only time frame that is not below it's Kumo is the 60 minute chart, but even that chart has a Tenkan-sen/Kijun/sen cross so all the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charts are very bearish.

The ES Mini and the SPX have similar counts





We crossed the 1039 level!
The last chance for the Bulls to redeam them selves is if the ED count comes back to life. 1018 is the top of wave A and we are not that far from it. Should that line be crossed this scenario can be taken off the table.



Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Go Bears!

We broke the bottom trend lines and I'm counting P2 as finished.





Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.