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Friday, July 16, 2010


15:25 ET
Weekly Kumo has fallen. Bears are on a rampage!
Soon to meet Bull support at 1063.


15:00 ET
The Bears have put up a better fight than I gave them credit for.
Currently Price is below the Hourly and bumping the Weekly Kumo.
Should the Weekly Kumo fail to provide support it will provide resistance as the Hourly Kumo is doing now.
My expectations for a last hour rally may be limited to the area of resistance as noted in the chart, or perhaps even lower if the Yellow fork holds the advance.

13:38 Timing has never been my forte, but I try. 1068 is still my target for low of the day. Then Friday closes with a rally near 1080.

13:26 ET
I'm looking for a low for the day at 13:35 near 1068

12:58 ET
It broke lower...

12:50 ET

10:55 ET
Today I expect Price to follow the Yellow fork down to 1071. Near the close I expect a repurchase which will drive price back up to about 1080.

I think this is a good time to remind you of a a prediction I made exactly one week ago on July 9th. Here is what I said back then:

"I'm not saying Price will go to the 1090 area, but I see a possible scenario if it should.
The chart below shows the Daily and Weekly Kumos. Notice the red oval I've drawn in. This is where Price may end up being sandwiched between the two Kumos. This would most likely cause the Bollinger Bands and the Keltner channels to cross resulting in a build up of market pressure and a violent move out of the trading range."

I still see a very strong possibility of the scenario happening. It would play out like this.
Price rides the top edge of the Hourly Kumo returning to the top tine of the yellow fork.

Then I would want to look at the Squeeze indicator. I expect it would be showing a high amount of pent up pressure at that point. My assumption at this point is that Price takes a forceful dive from there, but if the Daily Kumo lets price in, there may be a rapid accent to the top of the Daily Kumo near 1130. We would have to see what the other indicators are saying at that point.

If my preferred scenario were to play out and Price breaks the Hourly Kumo, support would be found near the 1060 level.

10:30 ET
It's time to redraw your forks.
Price is below the 50 DMA.
All of my hourly indicators are bearish
Look at the way the Daily Kumo rejected the advance. So long as this is not a triangle, the bears are in good shape.

Analysis presented on this Blog has only informational, and educational purpose, and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling contracts, equities or currency.

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